Winter Storm Warnings out for the city, Delaware County, the northern two-thirds of Delaware, and South Jersey tonight as the potential for a warning criteria snowfall could occur according to the National Weather Service across parts of the area. Warning criteria for Philly, Delco, and points south is four inches of snow, while for everyone else in the area criteria is six inches of snow. The National Weather Service is thinking 3-5 across Philly, South Jersey, and Delaware...we're predicting a bit less around Philadelphia but we do think areas south of the city, generally west of the AC Expressway, could see 2-5" of snow. We also think southern Delaware County and Chester County could see 5" in spots as well.
Round two of the President's Day event is poised to move back in over the next few hours, lasting for much of the evening. Precipitation will probably start as rain for a time before transitioning to snow from north to south, with snow at its steadiest between 11 PM and 3 AM across the region. Snow should taper off between 3 and 5 AM in the city and should be pulling off the coast by 8 AM.
Unlike last night's event, this event will be steadiest and heaviest to our south and west, with several inches of snow likely across the Maryland and Pennsylvania border areas and a decent snow event across the southern and western suburbs of Philadelphia -- 2-5" are likely in Chester County through much of Delaware and across parts of Southwestern New Jersey (generally Millville to Avalon on southwest). In some parts of Delaware, isolated totals over 5" can't be ruled out. Across the Philadelphia region, I'm going for 1-3" of snow, with that 1-3" swath extending up the 422 corridor, and above the AC Expressway in South Jersey.
More snow is expected to fall west and southwest as low pressure will slide to our south. The dynamics with the storm system may weaken as it moves into the region and as a result less precipitation is expected to fall to the south of the city than it does farther to your west. That's why York gets 4-8" while Philly ends up in the 1-3" range. Also, as colder air in the wake of round one slides south, the low will gradually nudge south with the frontal boundary over the course of the night. This is why Bucks and Mercer are not under any advisories or warnings tonight -- the potential for more than nuisance snow up your way is minimal.
All that said, this will shape up as a nuisance event tonight -- one that will probably mean a slow or slick commute in spots, school delays for a number of districts, perhaps closings in some areas where more snow falls. If Philadelphia picks up two inches of snow tonight, we'll have our first back-to-back winters of 40" of snow since 1977-78 and 1978-79. Rarefied air, perhaps?
More: Current Weather Tracker
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