Drizzle, Snizzle, and Mix of the Two To Start April

Radar this morning is showing a messy storm system that is slowly getting its act together -- farther east and less wrapped up than anticipated.   We have a couple of batches of precipitation across Eastern and Central Pennsylvania this morning -- rain in some locations, mix of snow/rain in others, with snow in the higher elevations to the north of the city.    Since the event is a "dud" from a snowstorm standpoint and generally a minor, nuisance event in the Poconos the winter storm warning has been downgraded to an advisory until 10 AM.

The game should get in today -- perhaps delayed and that depends on how quick the precipitation in Pennsylvania can lift out of the region.   Guidance suggests steady precipitation should end in the city around Noon, which means the game should be played since the precipitation around town is light enough to cause too many impacts.  It doesn't mean the weather will be ideal by any stretch and it is possible a couple of showers could linger through the afternoon.

Until the precipitation ends, expect the light rain, drizzle, some snowflakes mixing in as this mess moves on through slowly over the next several hours.   Despite the drear...April snowflakes bring May allergy headaches?   Had to think of something that rhymed with flakes...

Update, 7:30 AM:   Rain/snow mix or just outright light snow across the suburbs now as the main axis of the upper level energy is working through and precipitation rates are just heavy enough to bring the snowflakes down to the surface.  It wouldn't surprise me if coating accumulations occurred over the next hour or two, especially in elevated areas north and west of the city.

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Late Day & Evening Showers

Today's 'event' is not a big deal -- and will mostly be liquid given current trends in precipitation intensity, timing, and temperatures at the surface.   Precipitation is starting to break out across Virginia and extends back into Ohio and Indiana -- with the radar returns to our south in Maryland not reaching the ground early this morning.   Expect a slow and steady increase in cloud cover through the day today, with showers possible after 4 PM as the first of two storm systems moves east.

Precipitation will occur through the evening hours -- steadier after 7 or 8 PM, especially south/east of the city -- before precipitation winds down early Thursday morning.   Some of the rain could mix with snowflakes but accumulating snow does not look likely from this first event.

Briefly updating the second event, computer guidance is still showing the storm system on the board for Thursday night into Friday morning.  The "earlier" guidance on the GFS seems to be winning out, meaning that rain (and any snow that falls/accumulates) pulls out on Friday morning.  The snow question is still to be answered and much of that will be determined by how quickly the storm intensifies, but if the city receives just rain the game should be able to get played on Friday.    We'll update you on the progress of this later on today...

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Tonight's Snowfall Projection

Tonight's event is the first of two waves for the Delaware Valley, with more snow expected to the north of the region.  I don't expect much in the way of snow around Philadelphia from round one, with perhaps some sleet pellets or snowflakes mixing in with light rain from time to time.   A coating is possible across the northern half of the city but I think the best chances for any coating of snow will generally be Turnpike and north.   Any coatings could be on the front end of the event before milder air aloft nudges in and light snow/sleet transitions over to rain.

Trends from this morning suggest a bit more precipitation working across the region.  I don't expect any significant accumulations across the city or even in the coating region -- it's still quite possible these areas escape from seeing more than a few flakes or sleet pellets mixing in with a chilly round of light rain.   The best chances for any snow will be farther north -- we have 2-4" of snow in the forecast for the Lehigh Valley and areas north of I-78 in Central and North Jersey, including New York City. 3-7" of snow is possible, with isolated higher amounts, across Northern Pennsylvania, west of I-81 and north of I-80.   These areas should remain below freezing for a good chunk of the event.

Timing-wise, most precipitation will start up after 9 PM in Pennsylvania, after 10 in New Jersey, with precipitation lasting until 5-8 AM from southwest to north, with a longer duration of precipitation north and northeast of the city.

We still have the second round of the event forthcoming -- that will be on Monday night and could feature a few more inches of snow around town -- we'll update that tomorrow.

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