Can't Shake The Chances Yet...

The upper level low that many of us would love to gut punch (unless you are a duck or in the ark building trade) is now spinning over us today after taking three days to work north from the Carolinas.  At least it's finally moving and after today it should pull off the coast enough to provide a nicer weekend.  However, we can't completely shake the rain chances quite yet and today features the low's spin providing showers and storms through the day.  Radar this morning shows a band of showers to the north and west of Philadelphia, working slowly east and east-southeast.   Some of this will work through the Philly suburbs over the next few hours.

Like yesterday, showers and storms will be slow movers for the most part and yes, we'll have a similar type of day to yesterday with pop up showers and storms in the Delaware Valley firing up towards and just after midday.    To the north and west of I-95, showers are a bit more widespread because of the presence of the upper low but we should see intensity of showers and thunderstorms increase across the north/west (where it's raining in spots this morning) as the influence of the sun agitates the upper low.

Also like yesterday, any shower or storm that pops up could become severe with gusty winds and small hail but odds lean against a widespread event again today.    Higher resolution radar models suggest that the best chances for any strong storms will be across Philadelphia, Wilmington, immediate South Jersey, and Chester County during the afternoon hours as a spoke of the upper low pivots some shower and storm activity southward.   Heavy rains can't be ruled out and with recent heavy rains in some spots a flash flood watch was issued for parts of the Lehigh Valley, Northwest Jersey, and Poconos for this afternoon as a drenching shower or storm could agitate local streams.

Showers should taper off after sunset tonight as the low finally works towards the coastline and eventually pulls off the coast, giving us a warmer Saturday.   While some storms can't be ruled out tomorrow, odds are we should see fewer storms pop.

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Guess What's In The Forecast Today?

With today's weather, you get one guess and one guess only...

If you guessed "showers and storms" you would have guessed....correct. Yep, today brings us yet another chance of showers and storms as our pesty upper level low rumbles into the region. The low is already triggering showers and storms over Central Pennsylvania early this morning, with those showers and storms slowly moving northward and leading to flash flood warnings getting issued out near Harrisburg at 4 AM.

We should be able to coax a few more degrees out of the temperature today, if only because we'll have a few more breaks in cloud cover during the midday hours.   Some spots have patchy fog this morning to start your day -- that fog should lift after 8 AM and should give way to a variably cloudy sky.   Showers and storms will gradually break out towards midday and into this afternoon across the region, some of which will produce heavier rains and localized stream flooding can't be ruled out today in some spots.   The higher resolution computer modeling below shows the potential for the radar to light up after 2 PM this afternoon around the area.

There is no definitive severe risk in the area today but, like yesterday, the random spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out nor could some small hail or gusty winds since more unstable air resides around the region and a bit more sunshine is certainly possible before storms pop.

Storms, unlike yesterday, will be slower moving since the upper level low is nearby and we won't be dealing with spiral bands of thunderstorms working in off of the Atlantic.  These storms may move little, but generally to the north in their movement, later on today.   Not everyone will get wet today and some areas will see more rainfall than others later on today -- but it is a day much like the past couple in that thunderstorm chances abound.

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Not A Complete Washout, Just Not A Super Nice Day

Morning radar looks a bit like a bad acne outbreak, with scatterings of showers and a few rumbles of thunder about the local landscape early this morning.   Today's weather will be somewhat similar to yesterday -- a couple of rounds of showers out and about but it will not be widespread in nature nor last all day long.   Temperatures today should end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday's 69 degree high and we should see some low 70's from Philadelphia on south this afternoon.

The computer models are struggling with moisture transport, location, and coverage aspects of rainfall and the NAM and GFS are still honking at the potential for significant rainfall in the region.   Well, while that's still possible the heavier rainfall aspects will probably be localized and not as widespread as the models are indicating.   A few more rumbles of thunder are possible today, in part due to a bit more instability working in and also in part to some less moist air aloft working in, which may throw some breaks in the clouds up into Philadelphia and help destabilize the atmosphere a bit more.

Today won't be a total washout but probably not the nicest of days overall as we're dodging occasional scattered showers.

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Showery, Unsettled, But So Far Dodging The Worst

An upper level-driven disturbance tends to throw curveballs at opposing forecasters, leading to moments of hair pulling, premature balding, and in my case just deciding to use a razor and lop it off.   Today hasn't been the best of days but it could have been much worse.  Computer guidance was leading us down a rainy path with periods of showers and thundershowers that could drop heavy rains.  We've had a few of those periods of showers move through but have been able to dodge the worst that Mother Nature could throw at us.

Based on my observations, while the moisture fetch with this system is impressive, we've been lucky to see most of the moisture so far get thrown north into Southern New England and into the New York Metro areas.   The flow at the mid levels of the atmosphere is rather robust from the south and is driving moisture farther north and less northwest than modeling and forecasters had predicted.   Most guidance was pivoting rainfall around the low but we're seeing that happen only in areas close to the upper low center.  There's a bit of divergence between the broader southerly mid level flow and the mid level center.   The southerly mid level flow that coincides with where the best lift and dynamics (east of us in the Atlantic) is helping drive rain up the coast, just offshore, and into Long Island and Connecticut.    Good for those of us who don't want rain...bad for forecasters who predicted it since this afternoon hasn't been an utter washout.   It's certainly not a nice afternoon but it could have been a lot wetter.   We should see the upper low pivot a bit more west and that should allow that divergence to lessen...might not be until later tonight though.

The trend between now and Wednesday night is periods of showers and thundershowers.   The problem is timing...details...and how much.   The potential still exists for one to three inches of rain -- not everyone will see three but most should see one by the time tomorrow night ends.   The higher res depiction of what will happen between now and tomorrow afternoon shows two main trends (scroll down for those trends):

1) There will be lulls -- one that lingers now through the evening before we start back up later tonight, with another lull possible tomorrow during the mid to late afternoon (less certain).   Rainfall will not occur at all times but the potential for rain is around at most times...although the rainfall chances will be much lower in the lulls.

2) Any showers still have the potential to be locally heavy (evidence the showers/storms in Maryland this afternoon) and could lead to localized flooding.  Keep in mind these will be localized in nature and not definite...just a possibility.

We'll provide another update in the morning.

Licensed to Soak

Flood Watches were nudged northward this morning in response to rains that fell across Berks County yesterday, saturating the soil across the far western parts of the area.   Today marks a day of more widespread bands of showers and thunder pivoting in off of the Atlantic, brought to you by an upper level low that's in no hurry to move and is pulling a significant plume of moisture in off of the Atlantic.

Radar this morning is showing the soggy rainfall pivoting in from the Atlantic, with temperatures in the 50's north of Philadelphia and in the 60's from Philadelphia on south.   The temperature climb today will be modest -- with 50's holding in some spots north of the city while Philly and south should get into the mid and upper 60's before day's end.   Rain will not occur at all times of the day and will be more showery in nature -- but when it does rain the potential exists for it to be rather heavy at times in spots.   This leads to the potential of localized flooding of streams and roads.  

Rainfall over the next two days could exceed three inches in some spots, with everyone in the running to get at least an inch of rain.  Again, it won't rain all of the time but it will rain more often than not today and a fair portion of the day on Wednesday.

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Hawaiian Waterspouts & Winter Weather

While this happened back on Monday, it's still pretty cool to see and share.  A strong upper level low pressure center worked its way through the Hawaiian Islands early this week and lead to some plenty of showers and thunderstorms -- and a rare waterspout sighting off of Oahu.   The upper level system brought 20,000 lightning strikes to the Hawaiian Islands on Monday, including 6700 strikes in an hour's time during the 7 PM hour.

Hawaii News Now has a collection of photographs of the waterspouts and lightning from the storms as they moved through.   At the peak of the storms Monday night, about 60,000 were without power.

Not only did the upper level storm system bring strong storms, waterspouts, and even some flooding...but it brought winter weather advisories for snow and freezing rain to the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea.  At one point, the winter weather advisories were the only ones issued for any one location in the US.   In the case of the snow in Hawaii, elevation is definitely your friend!

A Bit Less Active, Still Some Dampness To Deal With

The radar picture this morning is a bit less active compared to yesterday evening and last night, where a couple of rounds of thunderstorms traversed through New Jersey after 5 PM and lead to a severe thunderstorm warning down in South Jersey late last evening with the second round of thunder.   Having a strong upper level jet and a potent upper level low will give you some severe weather in the less-than-ideal airmass for it.    The region picked up between one-half and one and a half inches of rain from yesterday's rain and thunder...and we're not done yet.

The good news is that today's activity should be less active than yesterday as the upper level jet has moved east into the Atlantic.  The upper level low is moving overhead today and the shower activity in Maryland and Western Pennsylvania will gradually pivot through over the course of the day and dampen our midday hours, with a few rumbles of thunder not out of the question across the region as the upper level energy is still around.   Winds will gradually slacken off, especially compared to yesterday, temperatures will end up similar (50's for many locations), and off and on showers will be the rule.

The low should pull away this evening and conditions should improve for Thursday.

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