Showery, Unsettled, But So Far Dodging The Worst

An upper level-driven disturbance tends to throw curveballs at opposing forecasters, leading to moments of hair pulling, premature balding, and in my case just deciding to use a razor and lop it off.   Today hasn't been the best of days but it could have been much worse.  Computer guidance was leading us down a rainy path with periods of showers and thundershowers that could drop heavy rains.  We've had a few of those periods of showers move through but have been able to dodge the worst that Mother Nature could throw at us.

Based on my observations, while the moisture fetch with this system is impressive, we've been lucky to see most of the moisture so far get thrown north into Southern New England and into the New York Metro areas.   The flow at the mid levels of the atmosphere is rather robust from the south and is driving moisture farther north and less northwest than modeling and forecasters had predicted.   Most guidance was pivoting rainfall around the low but we're seeing that happen only in areas close to the upper low center.  There's a bit of divergence between the broader southerly mid level flow and the mid level center.   The southerly mid level flow that coincides with where the best lift and dynamics (east of us in the Atlantic) is helping drive rain up the coast, just offshore, and into Long Island and Connecticut.    Good for those of us who don't want rain...bad for forecasters who predicted it since this afternoon hasn't been an utter washout.   It's certainly not a nice afternoon but it could have been a lot wetter.   We should see the upper low pivot a bit more west and that should allow that divergence to lessen...might not be until later tonight though.

The trend between now and Wednesday night is periods of showers and thundershowers.   The problem is timing...details...and how much.   The potential still exists for one to three inches of rain -- not everyone will see three but most should see one by the time tomorrow night ends.   The higher res depiction of what will happen between now and tomorrow afternoon shows two main trends (scroll down for those trends):

1) There will be lulls -- one that lingers now through the evening before we start back up later tonight, with another lull possible tomorrow during the mid to late afternoon (less certain).   Rainfall will not occur at all times but the potential for rain is around at most times...although the rainfall chances will be much lower in the lulls.

2) Any showers still have the potential to be locally heavy (evidence the showers/storms in Maryland this afternoon) and could lead to localized flooding.  Keep in mind these will be localized in nature and not definite...just a possibility.

We'll provide another update in the morning.