Memorial Day 2011 Forecast

Summer's unofficial start has been accompanied by warmth.   The end of the first weekend will bring heat as temperatures will nudge 90 for the second time this year and begin the first heat event of 2011.   Upper level ridging of high pressure will help warm us up and a surface high off of the Carolinas will push warmth northeastward at the surface.  It's the "perfect" mix for heat and temperatures will respond in kind over the next few days.

With the northward advance of the heat ridge, we could see a complex or two of thunderstorms develop across the Great Lakes this afternoon and push east along the ridge's northern fringe tonight.   It's possible some thunderstorms could pass through the Poconos and Northern Pennsylvania, perhaps extending down into the I-78 corridor, later on tonight.   For those who don't get storms, it will be a muggy night around town.

Memorial Day features a push of temperatures into the 90's, with humidity levels high enough to push heat index values into the mid and upper 90's away from the coast.   A weak disturbance will try to push into the ridge of high pressure, which will act as a trigger for pop up thunderstorm development in the afternoon.   Some storms will be locally strong but it will not be a widespread event.   Temperatures at the Shore will nudge 80 with increasing humidity.

Week Ahead:   Tuesday could be the hottest of this week as temperatures could reach 95 degrees under mostly sunny skies and the continued influence of the heat ridge.   A frontal boundary will push southeast from Canada, crossing the region on Wednesday evening with a threat for strong and severe thunderstorms as the front will bring a respite from the heat.   Temperatures behind the front may not reach 80 by the time we get to Friday, with the weekend starting off rather nice but potentially ending stormy.