2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

Last season shaped up as the third most active hurricane season on record, matching 1887 (which we all remember) and 1995 (which most of us remember) in terms of activity. While coming nowhere close to the record standard of 2005, 18 storms and a couple of brushes with tropical systems is nothing to sneeze at.   While the East Coast avoided a true landfall in 2010, the mean track of tropical systems was a bit closer than what we had to endure in past years.

Eventually, a hurricane will strike the East Coast -- Isabel being the last hurricane to hit the Carolinas or north in 2003 -- and while one can't guarantee a year with a hit or not, the mean pattern as we work through the latter portions of Spring and into Summer suggests the East Coast could be at risk for a tropical system to come up the coast as the mean upper level trough has positioned itself in the Ohio Valley.   Of course, timing is everything with tropical systems coming north up the East Coast so results may vary from potential.  

While the Atlantic is historically warmer than average in terms of oceanic temperatures, which means we could have a pretty hot start in terms of tropical activity, the big wildcard is in the Eastern Pacific.   The La Nina state that dominated 2010 is quickly weakening, with oceanic temperatures now near or slightly above average along the equator.   The biggest question in terms of 2011 activity in the Atlantic is how much warming takes place in the Eastern Pacific and how quickly any warming takes place.   A warmer Eastern Pacific can inhibit tropical development in the Atlantic as the upper level atmospheric environment becomes less favorable in the Atlantic and storms tend not to develop in the Atlantic in Nino years.   I had predicted a netural ENSO state for much of the summer and I think that is generally the case -- however, a weak Nino may develop in the Fall and that could mean an early end to the 2011 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.   For what it's worth, most computer modeling is predicting some sort of weak Nino for the upcoming winter.

The hurricane forecasts for 2011 are not as aggressive as last year's -- but are still calling for an above average season compared to historical averages and near average compared to the last sixteen years.   A blend of a number of forecasts suggests a consensus forecast of around 15 tropical storms, of which eight are forecast to become a hurricane, with four major hurricanes.

Our forecast is a nudge less aggressive than the consensus and accounts for the potential of a Nino event this Fall.   I'm predicting 14 storms, seven hurricanes, and four majors this year, slightly below the 95-10 average but still a moderately active season compared to the all-time historical average of ten storms. It's not as important to focus on the month-to-month trends -- it's harder to predict monthly totals of storms as opposed to the seasonal totals.  However, the thinking is that the season probably has a typical start by recent times but may cut off a bit more abruptly than past years if El Nino does develop.  If it doesn't the season could easily see a couple of more named storms in October or November.    The main Cape Verde portion of the season could be a bit earlier than past years -- it could start as early as late July or early August depending on timing.

The Carolinas and Central Gulf could be a bit more at risk this year for landfalls based on upper level trough positioning so far this year -- of course things can change on this but the "look" in the mid atmosphere so far suggests these areas could be a bit more under the gun for a landfall.   As I say every year, coastal sections should prepare just in case one storm develops in an inactive season and becomes the season's "storm of record."


More: 2010 Prediction | 2009 Prediction | 2008 Prediction | 2007 Prediction

Editor's Note:  The last two graphics should read "'95-'10 Avg." not '95-'09 -- the averages are right but the year wasn't updated in the graphic.