About Last Winter

Winter is pretty much over after yesterday's April Fools' snowfall so it's time to dust off those faded memories of last winter's forecasts and see how everyone did.

The first graphic above is the original TV station forecasts from last November, followed by our  forecast for the winter across the Delaware Valley.   From a snowfall standpoint, nobody did well at all -- the final winter tally of 44" was double to triple what was forecast by everyone -- and is a brutal reminder that snowfall forecasting is a complete and total wildcard as placement, snowstorm track, etc. are all variables that are tough to pin down from one end of the winter to the other.   Needless to say, the winter snowfall forecast was a miss.

Let's compare temperatures.     The actual temperature departures from normal were as follows:

December -- 4.7 degrees below normal
January -- 3.0 degrees below normal
February -- 2.4 degrees above normal
March -- 0.9 degrees above normal

Channel 6 scored on two of the three months in temperature -- missing on January.   We missed on December (rather badly) but were close on January (not cold enough though) and correctly predicted a mild February.   Channel 10, who issues a forecast for March, did not do too badly on their March prediction (one degree below average isn't a bad call in November).

Channels 3 and 10 did not correctly predict any of December-February in terms of predictions from November although both stations revised their predictions midstream.  Channel 10's revised prediction was good on snow but missed the mark on temperatures, especially in February.

If anything, seasonal predictions are tough to pin down and no one forecaster can nail the entire winter perfectly -- whether it be snow or temperatures or overall pattern.   Each forecast has its hits and misses...some of those misses are quite significant (our December 2010 outlook was atrocious).   It is something that is "fun" to do in the sense of trying to get a handle on the winter pattern and to try to make sense out of the varied and crazy months of winter around the Delaware Valley.   Unfortunately, long range forecasting overall has a ways to go to get to the accuracy of a three or five day forecast.    Someday, though, it will be there...someday!

Weatherperson's Spotlight: Sue Serio

Sue Serio has had a long career in broadcasting in the Delaware Valley. While her background didn't start in weather forecasting, starting initially in radio and moving over to TV, Sue has earned a following at Fox 29 as she is the longest tenured weatherperson at the station.

Sue grew up in Baltimore and one of the things she remembers about watching weather on TV in Baltimore was Rhea Felkin of WBAL-TV, who did the weather with a puppet named JP. "That sure was a different time," she mentioned about the days of having puppets forecasting the weather.  Check out the link about the story about Rhea's last day doing weather at WBAL.  I personally got a laugh out of it.

Sue made the transition from Baltimore (and a radio gig there) to WSTW in Wilmington, where she did morning drive and got her start in television on WHYY as the weather anchor on their old 5:30 newscast for Delaware. Sue then bounced to Buffalo for a time before landing at Fox 29. It was during her time at Channel 12 where she began to get interested in meteorology and has taken classes through Mississippi State University to hone her forecasting skills. Had she not ended up in broadcasting, Sue stated as a kid she wanted to be an archaeologist, "so maybe I would have been studying what's under the ground instead of what's up there in the atmosphere!"

Sue, having the honor of being awake before most of us, has a caffeine-inducing day.

"I arrive at the television station at 3 a.m. and start preparing the forecast. Then I get myself ready for air. Good Day begins at 4:25, and weather is on every ten or fifteen minutes after that. Most days, I do weather and traffic from the studio until 7:00 am, and then go out to remote locations for feature reports. We call those segments "Runaround Sue." SallyAnn Mosey does weather and traffic from the studio from 7-10 am. When one of us is off, the other is on for all five and a half hours."

Sue's a fan of spring weather, preferring "an early spring day, with highs in the upper sixties, sunshine and a nice breeze."

So far, so good!

"But those perfect weather days are not necessarily the most interesting ones to talk about on television. So, professionally, I actually prefer a busy weather day with lots of "action," like snow or thunderstorms. It's more challenging, but also more rewarding when you get the forecast right, and you help people through a tough weather morning."

True, but nice weather is much easier to talk about, right? What about heat or cold, what do you prefer?

"Our viewers debate this on Facebook and Twitter all the time. So many people say they love the snow; just as many lately, though, are over it. Many tell me they'd rather have a heat wave, but believe me, when we get triple digit temperatures like we had last July, I sure do hear the complaints! For me, if I had to choose between one extreme or the other, then I'd have to go with the heat and escape to the Shore!"

Sue's hobbies include spending time with her husband (Bill Vargas) and their 13 year old daughter. Outside of family-related stuff? "I guess it's kind of dorky, but I'm kind of a crafty person, and I like to do things like knitting and scrapbooking."

When I asked Sue about the toughest challenges for forecasting weather around Philly, she first mentioned "the size of our viewing area, and all the microclimates that are included, like the mountains and the Shore. Sometimes the forecast is so different for all these areas, it can be difficult to summarize a forecast in a limited amount of time."

"One of the biggest challenges I have: When a cold front is crossing the state of PA from west to east and determining whether the associated storms will hold together when they hit the mountains. Pop-up thunderstorms in the summer can be frustrating, too. And it's always a challenge to pin down snowfall amounts several days before a storm."

What about future meteorologists? Sue's advice to them is a common theme you've seen so far this week. "The best advice I can give, if you are serious about studying meteorology, is to study your math!" Serio exclaims. "It's also important to be aware of the world around you. What I mean by that is: Learn about all the characteristics about your area that affect the weather, like geography and proximity to the ocean and mountains. I also think it's a good idea to keep your own weather records, so you can observe patterns during the different seasons."