Sunday's Scattering of Storms

With a weak disturbance working east and then southeast through the Mid Atlantic we will have a chance for some showers and thunderstorms later on Saturday night, continuing into Sunday around town.   The disturbance is not very strong and dynamics with it are not that impressive but any time there is a disturbance around in summer thunderstorm chances exist.  

If the NAM is to be believed on precipitation, the best chances of thunderstorms will be on Sunday across the western and southern parts of the region.   The GFS is a bit faster, with the lion's share of scattered storms on  Saturday night, again with the best chances to the west through south of Philadelphia as these storms (or showers) scoot along to the southeast.   The GFS suggests some pop up shower/storm activity on Sunday but it's widely scattered, if not isolated in nature.

Sunday shouldn't be a washout but it's possible, especially west or south, some spots get some thunderstorms from this weak disturbance as it moves through.

Showers Into The Later Evening

We can't completely shake showers this evening -- radar still depicts a band of showers and storms across the region, with a severe thunderstorm warning out for parts of Interior South Jersey at 8 PM.   Showers have been potent and widespread enough to drop anywhere from a quarter inch to an inch plus of rain across the region this afternoon and early evening.   However, as the sun sets we should begin to see the showers taper off slowly and eventually get ourselves to just mostly cloudy skies overnight.

Yeah, we won't completely shake the rainfall chances tomorrow either and more thunderstorms are possible as the upper low works off the coast.  We might, like today and yesterday, have to contend with a few more severe thunderstorms in spots but widespread severe is not anticipated.   The good news is that the weather will gradually improve...I promise...as we work into the weekend.   We might not stay dry all weekend long, however, as a frontal boundary might make an approach into Pennsylvania late on Sunday and could bring a chance of a shower or storm to the region.  We'll see if that holds or if we can coax out a dry weekend!

Not The Nicest Of Days...

This morning's shaping up similar to yesterday -- a good bit of gray outside and a bit showery in spots as some showers meander through the region.   These showers are scattered as radar above depicts -- hit and miss and some spots are getting just drizzle instead of a steadier shower.  However, this is the first sign of the upper disturbance that will hang with us for the better part of the next several days, bringing scattered to sometimes persistent showers and thundershowers.  

Today will be a bit unsettled at times but ok at others -- some showers will be out and about and at other times just clouds.   Temperatures will be a bit lower than yesterday's 73 degree high -- we're thinking upper 60's around Philly for today.   It will be a bit more humid than past days as southerly winds nudge more humidity in our direction.   Shower and storm chances will increase tonight and tomorrow as a wave spins off from the upper disturbance and moves through the region, with the best chances for precipitation west of I-95.   While heavy rain isn't expected everywhere, a few showers tonight and tomorrow could be a bit soggier than others.   I don't expect any flooding, however, but a murky feel and some thunder are a pretty decent bet over the next 36 hours.

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A Chance of Showers For Mom Today

Today won't be a washout...in some respects it will be like yesterday in that there is a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon as instability agitates the atmosphere into developing a few showers or storms around the region. Unlike yesterday, the coverage of showers and storms should be a bit less widespread and we should see a bit more sunshine around the region.

Late afternoon/early evening high resolution radar show the potential for those pop up showers around the region, with the highest concentrations to the north and northeast of the city today.   The upper air disturbance responsible for yesterday's round of showers has moved slowly into the Atlantic and is still close enough to act as an atmospheric agitator, leading to the shower chances around the region today but with a better chance for showers up towards New York City.

Like yesterday, best chances for anything will be after 2 PM and towards the late afternoon/early evening.  Unlike yesterday, these showers will generally move from north to south (as opposed to east-southeast and southeast yesterday).

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A Few Showers, Mostly North, Later Today

We're waking up to dry skies and a good amount of sunshine around the region this morning, setting ourselves up for a mostly nice day.   An upper level disturbance is scooting by to our north and has showers across New York State, trailing back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio this morning.  Those showers off to our west will track through Pennsylvania through the day today and we'll see some shower and thunderstorm activity move as well as pop up in spots through the afternoon as the atmosphere gets agitated from the disturbance's nearby presence.   This doesn't mean that the afternoon will be a wash out but we could see a few showers or storms around town, especially after 2 PM.

The NAM depicts the highest coverage areas as being north and west of the city but even that coverage is pretty scattered and light.  This isn't a big deal kinda system but like any scattering of showers and storms, a 20-30 minute detour of outdoor activities to the house, car, or appropriate sheltered location may be in the offing for a few folks later on.  A couple of showers can't be ruled out south and east of town but the odds there for any rain are a good bit lower than they are to the north and west.

Temperatures today should top out in the 70's away from the coast, with 60's at the Shore.

Nice Start, Maybe A Shower Later

It's a clear and somewhat cool start to the day across the region as temperatures in the pre-dawn hour are in the 30's in the Lehigh Valley, 40's in much of the rest of the region. Today shapes up as a pretty nice day on the whole as sun gives way to an increase in clouds later on as an upper level disturbance chugs east from its current position in Michigan and the Great Lakes.    While overall we should have a nice day, a passing shower or storm can't be ruled out late this afternoon or this evening as the disturbance works on in.

Radar shows the eastern edge of the disturbance in Ontario, just north of Lake Erie, with a slow eastward movement.   Computer guidance and higher resolution imagery suggest we stay dry through much of the day before shower chances increase after 5 PM from the west.   A washout this evening isn't likely but you may be dodging a 20-30 minute shower in any one location.

Temperatures, which were in the 40's on Wednesday afternoon and in the 60's yesterday, will be in the lower 70's in the region later on today as breezes flow in from the west-southwest and bring in additional mild air.   The upper pattern is shifting into a zonal flow from the west and as a result temperatures will remain close to average over the next several days, perhaps above average on any given day.  

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