Potential Weak Tropical System For Carolinas This Weekend

July can bring an increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic basin, especially near the Carolina coastline as frontal boundaries weaken and stall out. These stalled fronts have the tendency to spin up a weak tropical storm or something more from time to time and both the GFS and Euro computer models have been suggesting on a consistent basis for the last few days that something may spin up off of the Carolinas this weekend.   This stalled front is brought to you buy today's frontal boundary passage -- the one that is bringing us lots of heat, no storms, and will drift down into the Carolinas before stalling out on Thursday night or Friday.

The GFS and Euro are both suggesting weak low pressure off of either North or South Carolina, blocked from moving up the coast by a pretty decent surface high pressure system that will provide an easterly wind trajectory along the stalled front.   A low may spin up along that stalled front and hang out off of the Carolinas for a couple of days, perhaps gaining tropical characteristics.   If anything develops, computer guidance at this point is suggesting a movement onshore into either North or South Carolina -- but we're days away from that happening as most of the guidance is suggesting development may take place next weekend.

We'll update you if anything does develop -- odds are if it does it'll be slow to occur.