Another Chilled Rain On Friday?

A stalled out front will separate real Springlike weather from seasonable chill, with the front acting as a highway for a weak disturbance to travel east on Friday, spreading rain across parts of the Mid Atlantic.   The current thinking from the GFS and EURO suggests that this event will be weak and generally in the afternoon hours, although there are differences in track and also intensity with the shield of rain in the region.

The more northern Euro (shown above) brings a light to moderate rain event into the region, with about a quarter to half an inch of rain across the region on Friday PM.   The GFS (not shown) has a bit less precipitation and generally confines it to Philly and points south during the same timeframe.   The NAM is in agreement in its midday runs with this line of thinking, generally keeping rain south and west of Philadelphia on Friday afternoon -- and also leaning towards a minor event in general.  The system has, in general, trended a bit weaker, and that could be due to the presence of high pressure not far away...which will act as a negative impact on the system's strength and may also work to suppress it somewhat.

Either way, this doesn't look like a big deal event but at the same time Friday's weather isn't shaping up as nice by any stretch.   We could just end up with drizzle or a steadier light rain depending on track.

Late Day & Evening Showers

Today's 'event' is not a big deal -- and will mostly be liquid given current trends in precipitation intensity, timing, and temperatures at the surface.   Precipitation is starting to break out across Virginia and extends back into Ohio and Indiana -- with the radar returns to our south in Maryland not reaching the ground early this morning.   Expect a slow and steady increase in cloud cover through the day today, with showers possible after 4 PM as the first of two storm systems moves east.

Precipitation will occur through the evening hours -- steadier after 7 or 8 PM, especially south/east of the city -- before precipitation winds down early Thursday morning.   Some of the rain could mix with snowflakes but accumulating snow does not look likely from this first event.

Briefly updating the second event, computer guidance is still showing the storm system on the board for Thursday night into Friday morning.  The "earlier" guidance on the GFS seems to be winning out, meaning that rain (and any snow that falls/accumulates) pulls out on Friday morning.  The snow question is still to be answered and much of that will be determined by how quickly the storm intensifies, but if the city receives just rain the game should be able to get played on Friday.    We'll update you on the progress of this later on today...

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