This morning, thunderstorms already grace the radar's presence with a complex of thunderstorm activity north of Toronto in Canada, sliding southeast. These storms will cross New York State this morning into the afternoon hours, perhaps setting up along the NY/PA border by afternoon given their trajectory. Whether the storms survive through the day or not is not important...this batch of storms or their remnant will be agitated and enhanced by improving dynamics later on, which means odds favor some thunderstorms along the NY/PA border towards mid afternoon, with them sliding south and southeast from there.
Most computer modeling (GFS, EURO) has us remaining dry through Midnight locally while the NAM shows the line of thunderstorms sneaking into the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours, from north to south and generally after 4/5 PM in the Poconos and after 8 or 9 PM locally in Philadelphia. While there are some aspects of some of the NAM modeling that are a bit off (the potential for a second complex of storms in one of the NAM's forecasts is a clear outlier to the other modeling and probably not likely), the timing element makes the most sense given location of storms at present and trajectory.
So, summing up all that, expect much of the day to be generally very warm and increasingly humid locally. We should be thunder free in Philadelphia through dinner but odds favor some storms after 8/9 PM in the city, after 4 PM in the Poconos. The strongest storms have the potential to drop hail and/or bring gusty winds with them and the "best" chances for the strongest storms will be to our north where instability will be a bit more sufficient for strong and severe thunder. As always, we'll update the thunder threat later on!
More: Current Weather Page
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