Storms Coming Later Tonight

Showers and storms are about to move into the region, with a couple of batches of precipitation out there on the map to deal with tonight.  First, the activity to our south that is lifting northeast.  This should hit Philadelphia around or just after 9 PM although some activity is scattered around town at the time of this post.  This first round should last a couple of hours, with a second wave of stronger thunderstorms out to our west that should work into the region after midnight.   The second wave of thunderstorms could linger into the early morning hours before pulling away -- perhaps in time for the morning rush hour in the city.    Severe weather is not expected although some louder rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out.

About a half inch of rain can't be ruled out tonight, with some heavier rainfall totals possible in spots that receive stronger thunderstorm activity overnight.   More shower and storm activity will continue tomorrow as the upper disturbance responsible for tonight's activity works overhead.

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Scattered Showers & Another Cool Day

It's a wonderful morning in the Delaware Valley from a temperature standpoint -- 50's in the surrounding areas, low 60's in the city proper.   While skies are clear to start we will see clouds increase quickly towards mid morning thanks to the influence of an upper level low that's currently over New York State.  This upper low will drop south-southeast and impact our weather today with an increase in clouds and the development of scattered instability showers after midday today.

Those scattered showers could also include a few rumbles of thunder.  The strongest of cells could perhaps include a bit of small hail as the upper levels of the atmosphere are quite cool for June and could allow some smaller hail to develop within those showers or storms.   The best chances, as of this morning, for any stronger shower/storm activity reside to the north and northeast of town but it wouldn't surprise me if a few rumbles of thunder are heard around town later.

It will be cool, at least compared to average, again today as temperatures this afternoon top out in the lower and middle 70's throughout the region, about five to eight degrees below average depending on location.

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Smattering of Thunder Later

The region this morning is waking up to a generally gray sky as some low clouds and moisture in the atmosphere are giving things a hazy look.   Thunderstorm activity from last night across Central Pennsylvania has pushed into Maryland (see the radar  and temperature overlay on the left), leaving us generally "dry" for the start of Sunday in the region.

Today should shape up as a mostly dry day and eventually, some sunshine should break through the clouds as temperatures nudge 80 across inland areas.   The Shore will be cooler but also stay dry through the day today, with highs in the mid 70's.   Inland areas may not fare as lucky in the "staying dry" department as a weak disturbance will trudge across the region later on this afternoon, sparking a smattering of thunderstorms across Northeastern and Central Pennsylvania.   These storms will drift south and southeast, widely scattered to isolated in nature, and some may delay and/or impact outdoor activities later on this afternoon.   We're not expecting total washouts nor severe weather for all but there's a shot at some thunder popping up and drifting down from the Poconos after 2 PM (you can see the late afternoon high resolution model depiction below).  

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Can't Shake The Chances Yet...

The upper level low that many of us would love to gut punch (unless you are a duck or in the ark building trade) is now spinning over us today after taking three days to work north from the Carolinas.  At least it's finally moving and after today it should pull off the coast enough to provide a nicer weekend.  However, we can't completely shake the rain chances quite yet and today features the low's spin providing showers and storms through the day.  Radar this morning shows a band of showers to the north and west of Philadelphia, working slowly east and east-southeast.   Some of this will work through the Philly suburbs over the next few hours.

Like yesterday, showers and storms will be slow movers for the most part and yes, we'll have a similar type of day to yesterday with pop up showers and storms in the Delaware Valley firing up towards and just after midday.    To the north and west of I-95, showers are a bit more widespread because of the presence of the upper low but we should see intensity of showers and thunderstorms increase across the north/west (where it's raining in spots this morning) as the influence of the sun agitates the upper low.

Also like yesterday, any shower or storm that pops up could become severe with gusty winds and small hail but odds lean against a widespread event again today.    Higher resolution radar models suggest that the best chances for any strong storms will be across Philadelphia, Wilmington, immediate South Jersey, and Chester County during the afternoon hours as a spoke of the upper low pivots some shower and storm activity southward.   Heavy rains can't be ruled out and with recent heavy rains in some spots a flash flood watch was issued for parts of the Lehigh Valley, Northwest Jersey, and Poconos for this afternoon as a drenching shower or storm could agitate local streams.

Showers should taper off after sunset tonight as the low finally works towards the coastline and eventually pulls off the coast, giving us a warmer Saturday.   While some storms can't be ruled out tomorrow, odds are we should see fewer storms pop.

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Showers Into The Later Evening

We can't completely shake showers this evening -- radar still depicts a band of showers and storms across the region, with a severe thunderstorm warning out for parts of Interior South Jersey at 8 PM.   Showers have been potent and widespread enough to drop anywhere from a quarter inch to an inch plus of rain across the region this afternoon and early evening.   However, as the sun sets we should begin to see the showers taper off slowly and eventually get ourselves to just mostly cloudy skies overnight.

Yeah, we won't completely shake the rainfall chances tomorrow either and more thunderstorms are possible as the upper low works off the coast.  We might, like today and yesterday, have to contend with a few more severe thunderstorms in spots but widespread severe is not anticipated.   The good news is that the weather will gradually improve...I promise...as we work into the weekend.   We might not stay dry all weekend long, however, as a frontal boundary might make an approach into Pennsylvania late on Sunday and could bring a chance of a shower or storm to the region.  We'll see if that holds or if we can coax out a dry weekend!

Showery, Unsettled, But So Far Dodging The Worst

An upper level-driven disturbance tends to throw curveballs at opposing forecasters, leading to moments of hair pulling, premature balding, and in my case just deciding to use a razor and lop it off.   Today hasn't been the best of days but it could have been much worse.  Computer guidance was leading us down a rainy path with periods of showers and thundershowers that could drop heavy rains.  We've had a few of those periods of showers move through but have been able to dodge the worst that Mother Nature could throw at us.

Based on my observations, while the moisture fetch with this system is impressive, we've been lucky to see most of the moisture so far get thrown north into Southern New England and into the New York Metro areas.   The flow at the mid levels of the atmosphere is rather robust from the south and is driving moisture farther north and less northwest than modeling and forecasters had predicted.   Most guidance was pivoting rainfall around the low but we're seeing that happen only in areas close to the upper low center.  There's a bit of divergence between the broader southerly mid level flow and the mid level center.   The southerly mid level flow that coincides with where the best lift and dynamics (east of us in the Atlantic) is helping drive rain up the coast, just offshore, and into Long Island and Connecticut.    Good for those of us who don't want rain...bad for forecasters who predicted it since this afternoon hasn't been an utter washout.   It's certainly not a nice afternoon but it could have been a lot wetter.   We should see the upper low pivot a bit more west and that should allow that divergence to lessen...might not be until later tonight though.

The trend between now and Wednesday night is periods of showers and thundershowers.   The problem is timing...details...and how much.   The potential still exists for one to three inches of rain -- not everyone will see three but most should see one by the time tomorrow night ends.   The higher res depiction of what will happen between now and tomorrow afternoon shows two main trends (scroll down for those trends):

1) There will be lulls -- one that lingers now through the evening before we start back up later tonight, with another lull possible tomorrow during the mid to late afternoon (less certain).   Rainfall will not occur at all times but the potential for rain is around at most times...although the rainfall chances will be much lower in the lulls.

2) Any showers still have the potential to be locally heavy (evidence the showers/storms in Maryland this afternoon) and could lead to localized flooding.  Keep in mind these will be localized in nature and not definite...just a possibility.

We'll provide another update in the morning.

A Chance of Showers For Mom Today

Today won't be a washout...in some respects it will be like yesterday in that there is a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon as instability agitates the atmosphere into developing a few showers or storms around the region. Unlike yesterday, the coverage of showers and storms should be a bit less widespread and we should see a bit more sunshine around the region.

Late afternoon/early evening high resolution radar show the potential for those pop up showers around the region, with the highest concentrations to the north and northeast of the city today.   The upper air disturbance responsible for yesterday's round of showers has moved slowly into the Atlantic and is still close enough to act as an atmospheric agitator, leading to the shower chances around the region today but with a better chance for showers up towards New York City.

Like yesterday, best chances for anything will be after 2 PM and towards the late afternoon/early evening.  Unlike yesterday, these showers will generally move from north to south (as opposed to east-southeast and southeast yesterday).

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A Few Showers, Mostly North, Later Today

We're waking up to dry skies and a good amount of sunshine around the region this morning, setting ourselves up for a mostly nice day.   An upper level disturbance is scooting by to our north and has showers across New York State, trailing back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio this morning.  Those showers off to our west will track through Pennsylvania through the day today and we'll see some shower and thunderstorm activity move as well as pop up in spots through the afternoon as the atmosphere gets agitated from the disturbance's nearby presence.   This doesn't mean that the afternoon will be a wash out but we could see a few showers or storms around town, especially after 2 PM.

The NAM depicts the highest coverage areas as being north and west of the city but even that coverage is pretty scattered and light.  This isn't a big deal kinda system but like any scattering of showers and storms, a 20-30 minute detour of outdoor activities to the house, car, or appropriate sheltered location may be in the offing for a few folks later on.  A couple of showers can't be ruled out south and east of town but the odds there for any rain are a good bit lower than they are to the north and west.

Temperatures today should top out in the 70's away from the coast, with 60's at the Shore.

Nice Start, Maybe A Shower Later

It's a clear and somewhat cool start to the day across the region as temperatures in the pre-dawn hour are in the 30's in the Lehigh Valley, 40's in much of the rest of the region. Today shapes up as a pretty nice day on the whole as sun gives way to an increase in clouds later on as an upper level disturbance chugs east from its current position in Michigan and the Great Lakes.    While overall we should have a nice day, a passing shower or storm can't be ruled out late this afternoon or this evening as the disturbance works on in.

Radar shows the eastern edge of the disturbance in Ontario, just north of Lake Erie, with a slow eastward movement.   Computer guidance and higher resolution imagery suggest we stay dry through much of the day before shower chances increase after 5 PM from the west.   A washout this evening isn't likely but you may be dodging a 20-30 minute shower in any one location.

Temperatures, which were in the 40's on Wednesday afternoon and in the 60's yesterday, will be in the lower 70's in the region later on today as breezes flow in from the west-southwest and bring in additional mild air.   The upper pattern is shifting into a zonal flow from the west and as a result temperatures will remain close to average over the next several days, perhaps above average on any given day.  

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Friday Shower Chances

We'll quickly exit this chilly hit of temperatures and return to a more typical May temperature (lower 70's) as soon as Friday. With that moderation in temperature expected over the coming days, an upper level disturbance will spiral through the Mid Atlantic and act as a trigger for some showers during the afternoon and evening hours, primarily to the west of Philadelphia on Friday afternoon and then across the region on Friday evening...at least as computer guidance is indicating as of now.

This doesn't look like a washout or an all-day event by any stretch -- and much of Friday should be dry although clouds will increase as the day wares on and the upper low moves in.    Scattered showers are certainly possible, however, and a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out as well in the strongest of showers.   These weak upper level disturbances will be the norm over the coming days as a zonal pattern develops in the East and we see quick moving systems work through along the mean jet stream.   It wouldn't surprise me to see us get shower chances every other day through the next week.   No washouts but no prolonged dry weather, either!

Passing Afternoon Showers, Maybe Thunder Rumbles

The slow march of yesterday's cold front is complete as it is finally off the coast and cooler, less humid air is in place. Temperatures this morning are in the 40's and 50's around town to start, a good 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday morning, with highs today poised to top out in the mid and upper 60's with a stiff west breeze at 12-22 mph.

An atmospheric trough will work east through the state today -- it's in Western PA this morning -- and bring a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the region this afternoon.   Higher resolution radar modeling suggests the threat for shower activity is highest after 4 PM this afternoon, with the NAM suggesting anytime after 2 PM.   We're not talking about tornadic storms or supercells but there could be a few showers to dodge on the drive home as the atmosphere gets agitated by the trough, the stronger April sunshine, and cooler air aloft.

Today's shower activity should also be scattered, not widespread, and better chances for showers exist north of the city than south.

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