NOAA Predicts Busier Than Average Tropical Season

NOAA released its annual hurricane outlook yesterday, calling for an above average season that could see as many as eighteen tropical storms in the Atlantic basin during the 2011 hurricane season.    Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially kicks off on June 1st.

The official prediction from NOAA calls for between 12 and 18 tropical storms, of which between six and ten may achieve hurricane strength.   NOAA also predicts between three and six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) could develop in the Atlantic this year.    Their forecast is in line with other forecasts and with our forecast, which we will release on Monday.

NOAA considered the following climatic factors for the outlook:

*The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
*Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.   Last year, they ran as much as four degrees above average in the tropical portions of the Atlantic.
*La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.   Even in a neutral ENSO environment, formidable tropical systems can develop.

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in an article on NOAA's website.

We'll have our tropical outlook up on Monday.

Weathering The Budgetary Axe At The Weather Service

Details are starting to come out about the slashing of the United States FY 2011 budget...or what's left of fiscal year 2011 since the budget is over six months late...and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is taking a bit of a cut.  $142 million is one number...although some sites are kicking out closer to 20% in budget reductions from a $5.6 billion budget wish list.  In terms of impact, the sharpening axe does little to impact day-to-day operational forecasting at the National Weather Service (for this year, at least) other than potential hiring freezes in some locations.  It does not eliminate any of the services at the NWS level, however.   The NWS is considered essential and forecasting would likely be among the last to see any direct impacts other than staffing-related changes, structural reorganization, and the like.   Those minor changes can have impact in some locations, especially if forecast offices are eliminated down the line.   Doubtful that elimination happens in Philadelphia but in places that are more sparsely populated some changes could be made.

The bigger picture is different.   A couple of the bigger punches dealt to NOAA (the NWS parent) include the elimination of a climate service office, which would have served as a one stop division for all things climate related.    Another is the delay of a polar orbiting weather satellite that would have been used to help in winter storm forecasting over the US as well as improving observational weather over Alaska as there is not a weather satellite currently orbiting over the North Pole.

While this budgetary axe wielded some hits to the NOAA budget, it is merely one hit in what could be a parade of fiscal hits to come.   Work will begin in the coming weeks on passing the FY 2012 budget, which is supposed to be enacted by the end of September (good luck with that), and more fiscal belt-tightening is likely to be proposed...and probably enacted.

NOAA Warns of Spring Flooding

NOAA released its spring flood risk assessment today -- stating that much of the Northeast and Midwest has a higher than average risk of flooding due to the combination of excessive rains of late plus melting snow farther north.   The highest risk areas are confined to the Upper Midwest, the Red River Valley, Mississippi River Valley, and around the Mid Atlantic...specifically North Jersey, the upper parts of the Delaware River basin (above Stroudsburg).   It shouldn't come as a surprise that we're in a heightened risk -- perhaps this is a bit of a captain obvious moment from NOAA considering we had a near miss on flooding one week ago at this time.   However, short of a prolonged "break" in precipitation the risk for some flooding along streams and rivers throughout the Delaware Valley is heightened.

The areas that are most at risk will be in Minnesota and the Dakotas -- partly because of all the snow these areas have received (top ten season at Minneapolis) but also because of the path of the Red River of the North.   This stream has its headwaters in North Dakota and flows northward.    That's not an issue in the summer, fall, or winter.  However, because snow persists to the north in the spring longer than it does in areas to the south flooding is an annual concern along the Red, with three major floods in the last sixty years and two since 1997.   The Mississippi is also at risk -- due to heavy rains in the Midwest but also the heavy snow pack in its watershed in Minnesota.  It could also see flooding on a par with 1997 (which was top 5-top 10 in Minnesota).