Chance of Severe Storms Late Monday

A weak frontal boundary will slide south, buoyed in the atmosphere by a disturbance that will track east along the front and act as a trigger for shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon hours to our north. With additional heat and humidity in the atmosphere, there will be sufficient instability to fire off at least some thunderstorm activity to our north, and perhaps as well locally. The Storm Prediction Center has Pennsylvania and the northern two-thirds of New Jersey in a slight risk for severe weather on Monday.

The highest odds for severe weather reside over the twin tiers of Pennsylvania and New York -- with a 30% chance for severe weather within 2 miles along and north of I-80 to just north of I-86 in New York.   Most of these storms will fire on the front edges of a decaying MCS that will likely track through the Great Lakes tonight.   This MCS could spawn a line of scattered severe storms after midday that will slide southeast towards us.    Given the timing and likely origin points of thunderstorms, we should be dry for much of Monday and start seeing an increased thunder threat in the Poconos after 3 PM, locally after 6 or 7 PM.

Higher resolution modeling is rather "ho hum" on thunderstorm chances locally -- while other models (GFS, NAM) at least paint a chance for thunderstorms across the region in the evening hours.    This is an instance where the best chances for thunder will reside to our north...and if storms can hold together despite the timing working against us somewhat (evening time) we could get a few stronger rumbles of thunder as well.

We'll have an update on this in the morning.