Steady As She Goes

Credit to the GFS and Euro for beating the NAM again with another rain event -- this time the shield of rain was farther north and better modeled by the two main models while the NAM missed pretty badly on extent and on coverage.   It's been a chilled rain across the region as temperatures in the mid 40's for much of the afternoon have provided a November-esque feel to the air...

So far, just about three-tenths of an inch of rain have fallen in Philadelphia and we probably could end up approaching a half inch before the day is out, with steady rains continuing for the next few hours before they begin to taper off towards 10 PM, with rain ending around or just after Midnight.   The rain shield depicted above extends back to near Pittsburgh so there is a few more hours of rain forthcoming.

Warmer air is also on the march and we should see temperatures nudge about 10 degrees higher tomorrow, with another 10-15 degree jump in temperatures on Sunday.   Spring...eventually...will get here.

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More April Showers

Radar is a bit generous in terms of precipitation depicted compared to reality this morning.   There is some rain on the western front but some of the precipitation depicted below is not reaching the ground initially this morning.   We won't get rained upon all day...and in today's case, southern areas get more rainfall than north. However, this shield of rain that is depicted does stretch back to Chicago and as that rain moves eastward in association with the disturbance, some of this rain will reach into the Philadelphia region later on this afternoon.

The northward extent of the rain varies on the models -- the GFS and EURO provide a half inch of rain as far north as Allentown -- mostly with the afternoon and evening, while the NAM limits that northward extent of rain to Bucks and Montgomery Counties, with just showers to perhaps Allentown.   There will be a pretty sharp rain/no rain line across our northern areas with this system as high pressure across New England will funnel dry air down and attempt to eat away at the rain's extent.   The question is just how far north the rain gets -- at this point, I think it may rain into Allentown but they would not see much in the way of steady rain...possibly not on the levels depicted by the GFS and EURO.

Today, expect a gray day with rain spreading in during the midday hours, especially for the city.  North of the city, a period of rain looks like a good bet towards dinner and in the evening.  Rainfall totals range from a couple of tenths of an inch in Pennsylvania to as much as two-thirds of an inch south of the city.

Update, 7AM:   Parts of Delaware are already getting light rain, with the edge of rain at this point running from Lancaster to Wilmington to Millville to Cape May.  Rain is moving east-southeast for the most part so rain will be slow to spread northward through the day.

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Early Rain, Then Some Sun

A rainy and for some down in the Delmarva, a thundery start to the day as a swath of moderate and even brief heavy rain lifts northeast early this morning through the region.   Rainfall cuts off near Baltimore so in the city we should only expect a few more hours of rain as this system is in a hurry and moving quickly northeast through the region.  Low pressure is generally tracking along I-95 and is responsible for the shield of rain this morning, with thunderstorms developing across Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, lifting northeast off of the coast.   The shield of rain should lift out of Philadelphia by 7 AM or so, a bit later than that northeast.

After the rain departs, some sunshine is possible this afternoon as clouds break and dry air begins to work in. Temperatures could approach 60 in some spots south and west of the city before the day is out, a prelude to a couple of warmer days that will be with us for tomorrow and Friday.

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Rainy Day

It's mild this morning in the region but for those of you in Pennsylvania and Northern Delaware, it is soggy as showers are moving in ahead of the main shield of rain to your west.   Temperatures are in the 50's everywhere but Cape May (wind off the ocean) this morning, with southerly winds ahead of the storm system keeping it mild overnight across the Delaware Valley.   Steady to heavy rains are falling in Pennsylvania on south through the Carolinas, with those rains lifting north-northeastward today.

A cold front is slicing through western Pennsylvania, with low pressure centers in various spots along the front.  The southernmost low, in South Carolina, is expected to become the dominant low in the chain along this front later today as it lifts northeast, generally along or just west of I-95 (you can click on the map on the left to see the frontal boundary and radar of the region in better detail).  Behind the front, precipitation does transition to frozen (snow, some freezing rain) in Western Pennsylvania, which will be important to note for this evening up in the Poconos.

Today's story, though is a rainy one as the shield of rain slowly marches through.   While coastal parts of Jersey may stay dry for much of the day, only getting their rainfall towards evening, the shield of rain will slowly inch east and northeast while low pressure down south strengthens.  Additional rain and thunder will break out to our south, perhaps strong/severe in the Eastern Carolinas, and lift north along and south of the strengthening low.  This low should cross the region early this evening -- between 7 and 10 PM -- with the steadiest and heaviest rains occurring in the hours just before the low crosses by.   As the low strengthens, some colder air will drain into the storm and a transition to frozen and freezing precipitation could occur in the Poconos.  As a result, winter weather advisories are out for this evening for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA and places to the north.

Rainfall projections are for around an inch, give or take a little bit on either side, although some areas south/east of town could see less if those projected thunderstorms mentioned earlier don't materialize.  North and west of the city pick up as much as two to two and a half inches of rain from this storm today, with flood watches still out for Eastern Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey for the potential of stream rises and ponding of water.

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