Warm, Murky Spring So Far

I've had a few folks who have commented about the lack of 90's so far (and I have as well) and in some cases, have commented on the lack of typical Spring weather.   Believe it or not, we've been above average on monthly temperatures since February.   Obviously, the weather hasn't been that nice out but we have managed a few things that have favored warmer weather this Spring.

1) When we've been warm, it's been quite warm above average -- four straight days of 80 and above high temperatures in April, a spike into the mid 70's for a day in March have done wonders to average temperature departures despite the occasional cold snap.  Our average high temperatures this Spring (62.8 degrees) are more above average (2.6 degrees) than our average nighttime lows (1.5 degrees).   Those warm days...and warm early mornings that have provided as an extra "warm day" in a warm shot have helped provide a bit of added insurance to make up for the occasional cold day.

2) The chill has been short but potent.   Yeah, it snowed on April Fool's Day.  Yes, it was cold and rainy at various times in April and even into early May.   However, those cold days were predominately in late March and early April -- and generally only a few degrees below average on each of the days (40's and low 50's for highs, 30's for lows compared to average temperatures in the upper 50's and low 40's for high/low respectively).   April had a few cold days but they were short snaps in duration, with May generally mild (although cloudy and rainy for the most part).

Compared to last year,  we are a couple of degrees cooler in average temperature (56.2 in 2010 versus 53.7 this year) but believe it or not, we had yet to see a 90 degree reading to this point last year.  The first of those 55 90 degree days occurred on Memorial Day last year...and it's possible Philadelphia could hit 90 this year before the end of May, with Friday possibly ending up as that lucky day for our first 90 degree reading of the year.   The good news is we probably won't have 55 more days in the 90's before year's end -- the bad news for those who hate heat is that we'll have more than one in all likelihood.

All About The Sun

How much sun we get on Monday will determine how warm we get...with a really warm airmass aloft ahead of a cold front that will march east towards us for Monday night, the potential for record temperatures is still definitely on the map...but we need the sun to break through the stable airmass at the surface that has allowed for clouds to develop over us.   Provided sunshine breaks out in time, temperatures in the lower and middle 80's can't be ruled out before day's end.

Record highs are most attainable at Allentown and Reading -- they are the farthest inland and most likely to get sunshine during the day.   Skies should brighten from west to east in the morning, meaning Trenton and Philadelphia could get in on the record fun if sunshine breaks through the clouds fast enough.   The Shore will be the last to brighten and the coolest, temperatures likely struggling to get above 65 and perhaps dealing with fog right along the coast as wind trajectory (south-southwest) isn't ideal for offshore conditions and significant warming.

Probably Not A Record, Still A Warm One

Like four weeks ago Friday, when Philadelphia reached its yearly high of 69 degrees and several locations reached 70, this Friday will probably bring us our first 70 degree reading in the city and for many locations it looks like we'll see mid 70's.    March is typically the month when we first reach 70 in Philadelphia during the year so seeing a warm day like this is not rare by any stretch -- some years we get multiple 70 degree days -- but to get at least one in March is pretty much par for the course.

Despite the predicted high here of 74 being over twenty degrees above average for this time of the year, it will come short of the record high of the date (78, 1989).  Record highs for much of the region are either 77 or 78 on Friday, with Mount Pocono the rogue mark (64, 1927).  Mount Pocono could come close to or perhaps break their record as 60's are likely up there.

70's do look like a good bet south of the Poconos -- just how warm we get depends on how much sunshine we're able to coax on Friday.  Cloud cover could increase as a wave of energy works east along a southeast slipping cold front.   This cloud increase is likely for the later afternoon hours, with the potential for some showers at night in parts of the region.  It shouldn't dampen our or Mother Nature's enthusiasm for our first 70 of the year, however, as southwest winds at the surface look to be able to transport a good chunk of warmth into our region.