Transitioning to Haze, More Thunder Later?

Temperatures vary based on where you are in relation to a slowly moving warm front.   The warm front generally lies from Atlantic City to just south of Wilmington, with temperatures in the 70's to the south of it and 60's to the north.   The cooler, more stable air to the north was brought in on east winds yesterday and has held firm while the warm front tried to lift north last night to little success.   However, a pretty solid round of rain and thunder tracked through the region overnight and dropped a few tenths of an inch of rain to the city and immediate suburbs, more to the west of the city where a couple of inches fell.      Those storms were fueled by warmer air that lingered across South Central Pennsylvania yesterday afternoon in the warm sector. We will see the warm front push slowly north today -- gradually getting past Philadelphia, the PA Turnpike, and even across the more entrenched stable sector of air in Central Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania during the early afternoon hours.   Temperatures should reach the low 80's across the Lehigh Valley and I-78, with mid and perhaps even upper 80's across the Philly region and points south later on this afternoon.

The "push" of warmth will be ahead of a cool front that will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening, bringing another chance of scattered thunderstorms to the region after 4 or 5 PM.   We are not in any risk for severe weather this afternoon but we could see a few stronger storms pop in Central Pennsylvania, bringing gusty winds and some hail as they progress east.   These storms will move a little bit faster than yesterday's slow movers as the front that is pushing through has enough support aloft to push through the region and push the humidity out into the Atlantic.   Relief will be forthcoming for the early portions of next week -- although some instability showers may pop early next week as well.

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Off and On Showers To Start, Storms to Finish

A warm front will be lifting through the region later on this morning and will put an end to the east wind and cooler temperatures that plagued many an outdoor activity and forecast yesterday.   A band of showers extends from State College down through Baltimore and more or less "marks" the approximate spot of the warm front this morning.  It will lift east and northeast through the morning hours, crossing the region after 8 AM with another period of showers.   There are other scattered areas of rain early this morning around the region, with all of the precip moving east and northeast as well.

The aforementioned warm front will lift through, eventually bringing some sunshine to the southern two-thirds of the entire region (generally Philly burbs and south) and eradicating the marine layer of low clouds that introduced itself yesterday with the east winds off the Atlantic.   The sunshine breaks should take place towards midday...and are critical in how strong any afternoon storms get as a weak disturbance tracks east behind the warm front.   This disturbance is currently in Ohio, with thunderstorms associated with it, and will work into our region after 5 PM this afternoon if current radar trends hold.

A good chunk of the region is under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon -- but the chance of any severe thunderstorms that we see is entirely dependent on sunshine that pops out later on across Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, along with points south.   If the sun can break out for a good three or four hours around midday, that should be enough to help agitate the atmosphere to help keep these storms to severe levels.   Gusty winds and small hail would be the biggest threats this afternoon and early evening hours.  

Temperatures this afternoon will nudge into the 70's for many except the coastal sections and perhaps parts of the Lehigh Valley this afternoon.   How high the nudge is depends on sun, of course, but we should get a few hours and enough to bump temperatures into the mid and upper 70's around Philadelphia before the dinner time(ish) round of thunderstorms.

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A Damp, Cool Start To Today

The rain hasn't been as robust as thought so far but the damp, dreary chill as been rather ugly by late April standards as we sit in a damp easterly surface flow and in an overrunning pattern, with weak impulses of rain and showers tracking along a warm front that is south and west of the area.   Eventually, that warm front slides north enough to warm everyone up but it will take three days for that warm front to fully lift north -- and in the process of that slow march north we'll have precipitation chances here and there.   However, the front will slide north enough to warm up the city late today into the 60's and for Easter Sunday into the 70's.

Showers are working east this morning through Central Pennsylvania -- with another batch out by Pittsburgh -- and will pass through the region this morning and early this afternoon.   Things will be damp, occasionally rainy, and raw as temperatures slowly climb into the 50's by midday.  Those 60's will probably occur closer to dinner time as the Western PA batch of rain exits and the warm front sneaks through Philadelphia.   Rainfall today totals a quarter inch.   We also can't rule out a thunderstorm after 4 PM as the warm front moves in and some instability agitates the atmosphere enough to perhaps trigger a storm or two in spots.   The afternoon/evening thunder threat shouldn't be widespread or nasty by any stretch.

The front's northward advance slows to a crawl on Sunday -- generally north of Philly but not by a terrible amount -- and with another disturbance poised to lurch northeast along the frontal boundary thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon...some of which could be severe.  A slight risk of severe weather is out for Sunday across the region.

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A One Day Fling With Spring

A warm day is on tap in the Delaware Valley and the region is off to a pretty mild start.  Early (it's 4 AM when I'm writing this) morning temperatures are in the 40's in many locations save the mountains, with a 25-30 degree hike in temperatures a pretty good bet for many of us today.  That means mid 70's in the city for a high temperature -- a few degrees shy of a record high for today (80) but Atlantic City could hit a record since they only need to reach 77 to get there.

Sponsoring today's warmth is gusty south to southwest winds -- wind advisories are out for South Jersey and Delaware for this afternoon (brown shaded counties) where winds could gust to 40 mph or higher.   Elsewhere, wind gusts to over 30 mph can't be ruled out this afternoon as the warm sector ahead of tomorrow morning's cold front establishes itself and helps push a warm day through the region.

Don't get used to the warmth though -- a cold front will cross the region tomorrow morning with a round of rain and thunder, some of which could be a bit strong and bring some gusty winds.   Slight risks for severe weather exist as close to us as Pittsburgh today as the storm system that approaches us has a good bit of atmospheric bite to it.   We'll talk about the timing of those storms and how much rain we'll get to deal with later on this evening.

Tonight's Showers On The March

These are still a ways off but tonight's showers (and perhaps even some rumbles of thunder) are working through the Great Lakes late this afternoon.   The heavier echoes over Michigan have produced some hail and thunderstorms across Wisconsin and Michigan earlier today -- wouldn't surprise me if those storms rumbled across the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania and Southern Tier of New York State later tonight -- farther to our north.

Around here, the band of showers across Western Pennsylvania at 4:30 PM will work through here towards midnight, perhaps bringing a tenth of an inch of rain at best to northern sections of the region.   For others, a few drops of rain or perhaps just a settling of some atmospheric dust will result.   Showers could hang around into the early morning hours around Pennsylvania -- mostly north of Philadelphia -- all of this in association with a warm front working east ahead of a cold front, which will be our weather story early on Tuesday morning.

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