Rainy Day

It's mild this morning in the region but for those of you in Pennsylvania and Northern Delaware, it is soggy as showers are moving in ahead of the main shield of rain to your west.   Temperatures are in the 50's everywhere but Cape May (wind off the ocean) this morning, with southerly winds ahead of the storm system keeping it mild overnight across the Delaware Valley.   Steady to heavy rains are falling in Pennsylvania on south through the Carolinas, with those rains lifting north-northeastward today.

A cold front is slicing through western Pennsylvania, with low pressure centers in various spots along the front.  The southernmost low, in South Carolina, is expected to become the dominant low in the chain along this front later today as it lifts northeast, generally along or just west of I-95 (you can click on the map on the left to see the frontal boundary and radar of the region in better detail).  Behind the front, precipitation does transition to frozen (snow, some freezing rain) in Western Pennsylvania, which will be important to note for this evening up in the Poconos.

Today's story, though is a rainy one as the shield of rain slowly marches through.   While coastal parts of Jersey may stay dry for much of the day, only getting their rainfall towards evening, the shield of rain will slowly inch east and northeast while low pressure down south strengthens.  Additional rain and thunder will break out to our south, perhaps strong/severe in the Eastern Carolinas, and lift north along and south of the strengthening low.  This low should cross the region early this evening -- between 7 and 10 PM -- with the steadiest and heaviest rains occurring in the hours just before the low crosses by.   As the low strengthens, some colder air will drain into the storm and a transition to frozen and freezing precipitation could occur in the Poconos.  As a result, winter weather advisories are out for this evening for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA and places to the north.

Rainfall projections are for around an inch, give or take a little bit on either side, although some areas south/east of town could see less if those projected thunderstorms mentioned earlier don't materialize.  North and west of the city pick up as much as two to two and a half inches of rain from this storm today, with flood watches still out for Eastern Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey for the potential of stream rises and ponding of water.

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