We're about 30-36 hours away from the next storm moving on in, timed to start on Wednesday night with rain for most and some sleet and possibly snow in the Poconos. Computer modeling continues to suggest the potential for a very heavy rain event, although the models differ a bit on timing and details. The Canadian and some short-range supplemental guidance suggest a much slower evolution of the storm and a more robust mid level feature, which will cut off and enhance the rainfall to the level of several inches as the system lingers through Friday. However, those models are the exception. Most computer guidance as of this afternoon suggests that the storm system will provide a significant amount of rain but shoot the system through the region more quickly, either by late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
Both scenarios (the slower Canadian and the faster ones everyone else is depicting) suggest the heaviest of rains fall Thursday late afternoon through the evening...with the Canadian and slower forecasts suggesting heavy rain will linger into Friday morning due to the slower track and cut-off feature.
Between the GFS and the Euro computer models, the potential exists for 2-3" of rain across Pennsylvania, with a bit less rainfall south/east of the city (generally an inch can't be ruled out at the Shore), with the Canadian suggesting as much as four inches of rain from the storm over a larger chunk of the region. This type of rain, regardless of the two inch scenario or four inch, will cause flooding. With the heavier rainfall focusing to our north and west, this will impact the Delaware and Schuylkill River basins.
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