The earlier mentioned light snow/rain event for Sunday continues to show up in the models -- with some variation by model regarding timing and track. The northernmost track resides in the Euro, which is also the most moist and also the fastest of the three guidance. The Euro is primarily an early Sunday morning timeframe for the track of the storm system through the Mid Atlantic, resulting in snow for most of the region since it would arrive in the pre-dawn hours and the atmosphere will probably be cold enough for it. The Euro track brings precipitation closest to the Philadelphia area, generally keeping it confined to Delaware and South Jersey with only light echoes (flurries, snow shower?) across the Philly region if it's right.
The GFS is slightly south of the Euro and the slowest, with timing supporting a mixed bag event as it moves through around midday Sunday on its version of the system. The NAM, not shown either, is a bit south of the GFS and is in line with the Euro on timing (Sunday AM). The NAM keeps any precipitation south of Philadelphia altogether.
Given the track of this system looks like it will pass to the south of the city by a good bit, the farther south one resides the better their chances for a light snow event, especially if the faster NAM/EURO timing verifies. An inch or two of slush can't be ruled out for Dover, Cape May, perhaps Atlantic City. We'll update this over the weekend as the storm approaches and moves on through early Sunday.
Kamis, 24 Maret 2011
Sunday Snow To The South?
Label:
computer model discussion,
EURO,
GFS,
NAM,
snowfall discussion
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