With the evening now upon us, radar is showing the couple of pieces for this storm trying to come together. The storm is organizing a bit farther offshore than most model guidance anticipated (NAM was the exception) and is coming together more slowly as the upper trough isn't digging as sharply...instead it's shearing the storm a bit due to a more broad nature of alignment (U shaped, not a sharp V trough that helps in rapid intensification). As such, the storm is spitting rain across the region but is not developing at an explosive enough clip to provide the ingredients necessary for a widespread snow thump across the higher elevations to our north.
Hope is not lost for the Pocono snowstarved overnight -- energy back across West Virginia this evening will lift through and will likely provide enough juice to the atmosphere to allow for rain to change to snow in the higher elevations of the Poconos and perhaps down to Allentown overnight. Some snowflakes could mix in across Upper Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties -- particularly over the higher elevations.
With that said, while the storm is slow to develop it doesn't mean that it won't rain...even steady at times overnight. It's not going to be completely "dudsville" but rain will fall off and on overnight and is upper level energy fuses in later we can see some changeover taking place.
Snowfall totals for the region:
Allentown: Around 1"
Poconos and North Jersey below 1500' elevation: 1-3"
Poconos and North Jersey above 1500' elevation: 3-7"
We'll see if Mother Nature pulls another trick from her sleeve overnight but based on the slower and more eastern development of the storm this is probably what will fall overnight.
More: Current Weather Page
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