April Fools' Storm A Day Away

We're a bit less than 24 hours away from the April Fools' Storm's arrival in the region, with a soggy start and for those north & west of the city, a snowy ending as the storm intensifies tomorrow night and early Friday, leading to a transition from rain to snow for higher elevations north of the city.   The potential does exist for significant accumulations in the Poconos, the higher elevations of the Lehigh Valley, and North Jersey -- Winter Storm Watches are out for those areas.  

For the city, the "best" chances for snow will come at the end of the event on Friday morning as the heaviest precipitation is pulling away and colder air pulls in aloft.  We might get a brief mix in the city and the immediate burbs.   Computer guidance is suggesting that snow should accumulate to the north of the city -- after starting as rain -- as the storm intensifies and cold air ingests into the storm's western flank.  However, not everyone on the western flank will see snow.  Elevation helps -- if you're in the Poconos you'll probably get a good bit of snow.  Likewise, those in the upper parts of Bucks and Chester Counties should get some accumulations as well.   However, valleys and the urban core of I-95 will likely stay mostly rain.

Timing-wise, any transition of rain to snow should take place in the late evening or overnight hours on Thursday -- after rain starts up on the front end tomorrow afternoon or early evening.   Snow accumulation could be fast/furious over the higher elevations -- perhaps two inches per hour in the Poconos.   How quickly that snow fires up is dependent on how quickly the storm intensifies.   A slower intensification means less snow overall.   We'll have an accumulation forecast for the storm out tomorrow afternoon.

As far as Philadelphia is concerned, this should be a mainly rain event and should be over early Friday morning...perhaps during the morning commute.  Assuming no unforeseen accumulations of snow overnight tomorrow, the game may be delayed out of the gate but it looks like the Phillies have a decent shot of playing on Friday.   As always, stay tuned.