No Foolin'

The two systems of note for the upcoming several days are going to be completely different in terms of impact and in terms of "how much" for the region as they move through.  Event #1, which is timed to move through starting Wednesday in the late afternoon and evening hours, should generally bring little more than passing light rain, drizzle, or even a few mixed in snowflakes to the Philadelphia region.   Accumulations aren't likely although a rogue coating could accumulate Wednesday night in some grassy locations south and east of town as light rain transitions over to light snow after sunset.   With temperatures generally comfortably above freezing and precipitation generally rather light, not much impact is expected from this event.

Event #2, however, is a different beast.   Computer model guidance is generally agreeing on a storm intensifying off of the Southeast coast and lifting northeast late Thursday night and Friday morning.   The Euro, GFS, and Canadian all agree on a storm taking shape and quickly intensifying as it lifts up the East Coast...with the potential for significant wind, rain...and snow for some areas north and northwest of Philadelphia.   The Euro, shown below, shows the precipitation from 8 AM to 2 PM with heavy precipitation falling along the Delaware River to the north of the city.   The GFS shows similar but on a faster track (about six hours faster than the Euro).

Systems like this have the potential of throwing some surprises out there -- especially in the areas of heaviest precipitation where cooling of the atmosphere is sufficient to allow rain to transition to snow.   Elevation helps -- the northern and western burbs have it...south and east does not...in this case, given a track relatively close to the coast it will help to have elevation working in one's favor.

Putting all of that into the blender, the Friday storm is looking like the stronger of the two and more importantly, the potential exists in storm #2 for some snow in some locations.   In terms of impacts on those at the ballpark on Friday -- well, if it does indeed snow in Philadelphia the likelihood of a postponed game is higher than if we have an overnight rainstorm in the city that ends around 10 AM...the ballpark will be wet, perhaps the first pitch will be delayed, but the game can be played on a wet field...snow...well, it would be fun  to watch from the comforts of home or bar, but miserable to watch melt.   Odds, now, lean towards some city possible in the city but how much, timing, etc. remains to be determined.   Any snow that does fall, however, will be of the high density (concrete) variety.

Unfortunately -- assuming the storm does happen -- Mother Nature will win with the best of April Fools' jokes on those who want warmer weather.