The storm system will progress slowly through the region -- due in part to a blocking high pressure center in the Atlantic aloft and at the surface, which will prevent a fast movement of the storm through the region. Due to this slow movement, we'll see rain push northward during Thursday afternoon and evening in a "train" like fashion, covering the same areas repeatedly. This rainfall from midday Thursday through Friday morning will be the problem causer in the Delaware Valley and where we will pick up quite a bit of rain. Some thunder can't be ruled out during the storm either -- particularly on Thursday evening.
If the NAM is correct, some places see five inches of rain before the storm ends on Friday morning, with most of the region getting at least two inches of rain. The lightest parts of the storm will persist in coastal parts of New Jersey and Delaware, with rainfall totals between an inch or two inches. Most of Eastern Pennsylvania and North Jersey will see two to three inches, with some isolated higher amounts.
Flooding is likely on streams throughout the Delaware Valley -- including the Delaware River. Flood levels are potentially going to reach those hit in the wake of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 along the Delaware according to the National Weather Service. In addition to the flooding potential in streams, roadways are going to have some flood issues to deal with as well, particularly vulnerable roads around town.
I'll have an update on the system tomorrow morning.
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