NOAA released its annual hurricane outlook yesterday, calling for an above average season that could see as many as eighteen tropical storms in the Atlantic basin during the 2011 hurricane season. Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially kicks off on June 1st.
The official prediction from NOAA calls for between 12 and 18 tropical storms, of which between six and ten may achieve hurricane strength. NOAA also predicts between three and six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) could develop in the Atlantic this year. Their forecast is in line with other forecasts and with our forecast, which we will release on Monday.
NOAA considered the following climatic factors for the outlook:
*The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
*Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average. Last year, they ran as much as four degrees above average in the tropical portions of the Atlantic.
*La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season. Even in a neutral ENSO environment, formidable tropical systems can develop.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in an article on NOAA's website.
We'll have our tropical outlook up on Monday.
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