Selasa, 24 Mei 2011

Warm And Potentially Thundery

It's a warm and humid start to the day around the region -- localized fog has developed in spots that received some rainfall last night (mainly to the north and northwest of Philadelphia where the brunt of severe weather ended up taking place as well).   That fog should lift relatively quickly this morning since it's not a marine-induced fog, which will leave us with a mix of sun and clouds around the region for the mid-morning hours on.  Some storms can't be ruled out this morning as a weak disturbance ahead of the front tracks through and could trigger a shower or storm in spots.   This shouldn't zap the atmosphere too much and we should see a few hours of brightened weather.  Sunshine may be a bit of a premium in spots but there's enough warmth in place in the atmosphere to allow temperatures to get into the 80's away from the ocean.

It will be a warm day for most of the region and with a weak cool front approaching from the west we have the potential to see more showers and thunderstorms popping up around the region.  The Storm Prediction Center has the Philadelphia area under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening as the main batch of storms should develop to our west later on today and move into the region generally between 3 and 6 PM.   Fortunately for us, we're not in the highest of risk areas as a high risk is out across the Southern Plains today -- specifically Oklahoma City, Wichita, and Tulsa -- as a tornado outbreak is distinctly possible out there this afternoon and evening.   Here, gusty winds are the biggest culprit in any severe weather that does develop and one can't rule out the risk for a brief spin-up tornado in the strongest of storms.



Radar modeling (above) shows the potential for those storms this afternoon into the evening -- again, the models are generally suggesting they move into the area between 3-6 PM although there is some variation between the faster (NAM/GFS) and the slower (higher res) modeling.   Also, despite more heat and humidity locally compared to yesterday the one "downer" on severe chances is an unfavorable surface and low level wind flow (more westerly than the more ideal south-southwesterly).  It may result in a more scattered approach to thunderstorms as opposed to one solid line.   However, unlike yesterday storms should do a better job of holding together as they approach Philadelphia or track east into South Jersey.   Just something to keep in mind -- it may be a case where not everyone gets impacted, like yesterday, but those that do may get hit with some pretty potent thunder late this afternoon.

More:   Current Weather Page

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