May 17th, 2011 Forecast

The showers and storms of the last couple of days have been dodgers for the most part, hitting some spots and missing others...and in some cases hitting some spots more than once.   This changes to a more widespread rain and thunder event over the next couple of days as the upper level disturbance sucks in tropical moisture off of the Atlantic on a southeast flow aloft and at the surface.  The result?   Periods of showers and storms, increasing in coverage late tonight and continuing more or less through Wednesday.

Rainfall will be heavy in spots and we could see three plus inches over the next two days in some spots -- the best chances of that might be north of the city but modeling has been somewhat inconsistent to this point in determining who gets the most rain.   Regardless, the potential exists for some stream rises and localized flash flooding.  There will be some breaks in rain and thunder tomorrow as coverage can transition from widespread to scattered from time to time.   Unfortunately, those breaks don't appear to be long in duration.

Temperatures tonight drop into the 50's north to around 60 in Philly, with temperatures on Tuesday not climbing much.  If precipitation is a bit more scattered in nature and a bit less widespread we could coax 70 in Philly but with the thinking that precipitation occurs more often than not we're putting mid/upper 60's in the forecast in the city.    It will be breezy at times tomorrow, with east winds occasionally gusting over 25 mph in heavier bands of showers and storms.

We'll have a more thorough discussion on how much rain falls later this evening and update the progress of the showers and storms tomorrow morning.