It's going to be a summery Memorial Day weekend, very similar in many respects to last year's weekend when we saw our first 90 degree day of many in 2010. A summery pattern is generally kicking in starting tomorrow, which offers the outside chance of a 90 degree day in Philadelphia as southerly winds nudge northward and we stay on the warm side of a frontal boundary. That front fizzles upon crossing the region on Friday night and Saturday, leaving a lingering boundary around on Saturday that could spark a thunderstorm.
The boundary essentially falls apart due to a strengthening upper level ridge of high pressure in the South, which will flex its heat muscle and push warmth up the East Coast. The ridge weakens slightly on Friday and allows the surface front to push through and brings us scattered thunder chances in the afternoon, with only an outside chance for thunder on Saturday afternoon as the boundary fizzles away.
We could see a thunderstorm any afternoon over Memorial Day weekend but temperatures will be warm -- mid 80's on Saturday and Sunday afternoon, low 90's on Monday as the ridge strengthens further and high pressure entrenches at the surface off the Carolina coastline -- providing an optimal path for heat and humidity. The Shore will be cooler but still summery -- 70's for highs each afternoon east of the Parkway, 80's west of it. There could be a seabreeze that pushes further inland each afternoon but by and large it should be a nice weekend. Again, each afternoon or evening could present an outside chance for thunder but much of the holiday weekend will be awesome.
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