Updating Tomorrow's Sloppy System

Nuisance but could be dicey to get around tomorrow morning.  That best sums up the impact of the next system to come up the pike for Saturday.   It's a nuisance event in the sense that precipitation totals will be modest -- less than a half inch for everyone.  It's also not going to phase together in time to bring an explosive amount of snow to the Poconos.  With all that said, it's still something and given it will be working into a colder airmass we'll probably have some frozen precipitation on the front end that will transition to slop and freezing rain before temperatures rise above 32.

High resolution guidance from the Storm Prediction Center indicates the advance of precipitation into the region by Saturday morning.  It will likely move into Philly after 1 AM and start briefly as snow before the mid levels warm above freezing.  The surface may be slower to warm and as a result some freezing rain can't be ruled out across the Delaware Valley and northern suburbs for a time before temperatures rise above 32 degrees.  That 32 degree point should be reached during Saturday morning, which means slick spots will be out and about.  However, this won't be a repeat of the ice storm event a couple of days ago as precipitation will be modest.  With that said, slick spots will abound during the pre-dawn and morning hours before the sun works the roads through the clouds and temperatures nudge above freezing.   A chilly, off and on rain will linger through the day before ending in the evening hours in the city.

To the north, over the Lehigh Valley, a longer period of icy rain is possible before temperatures reach the freezing point.  You could have some travel issues for a longer period of time but up there you should see improvement in the weather towards midday.   In the Poconos, you will start as snow before transitioning to a period of freezing rain.   Up to our north, you have a better shot of seeing precipitation trend back to snow in the evening as the storm system begins to intensify and upper level energy works east from the Ohio Valley.   This transition back to snow could bring a couple of inches of snow on the back end of the event, especially north of Blue Mountain, with perhaps an inch on the back end in the Lehigh Valley.   Precipitation should end to the north around Midnight if not before.

I've scaled back the snowfall totals a fair bit to reflect a modest event overall, with just coating accumulations possible across Southeast Pennsylvania and South Jersey, with an inch or two from Trenton to Pottstown to Lancaster and north.   Two to four inches of snow are possible in the Poconos and Northern Pennsylvania.

The biggest issue will be the slick travel around during Saturday morning in some spots, especially city and north.  While it won't be a repeat of the ice storm from Wednesday, a little freezing rain can cause more problems than a lot of rain.