Gusty Storms & Potentially Heavy Rain Again

We're going to get a rinse and repeat setup with the next storm system and the chance for more showers and storms on Monday could result in some flooding issues to the north and west of Philadelphia as more heavy rain is expected. All computer guidance suggests that low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through on Monday night, putting us squarely in the warm sector on Monday and bringing us the potential for strong and gusty thunderstorms Monday evening as the cold front crosses the region.

After some rain on Sunday night and Monday morning, we get a break around midday before the main action with the front crosses the region Monday evening.   Computer guidance suggests the potential for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to break out ahead of the front -- and the Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Pennsylvania, Southwest New Jersey, and Delaware under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday for the potential for gusty winds with that line of thunderstorms should it develop.   Ahead of the front, warm and unstable air will push northward during the day and we could see temperatures make a run at 70 south of Philadelphia and squarely into the 60's into Southeastern Pennsylvania.   Dynamics will certainly support the thunder potential -- if we can break out into enough sunshine we could see that potential turn into reality.

Farther northwest, heavy rain could spread across Pennsylvania and bring some flooding to Northern and Central Pennsylvania as the NAM suggests above.  The GFS has that axis of heavier rain over Western Pennsylvania and Upstate New York and also has a second axis along a secondary low that develops along the cold front (the low tracks just south of Philadelphia and brings heavy rainfall potential across Maryland and Delaware).     There's still some fine-tuning on the details with the heavier rainfall on Monday.

More wind is definitely possible as the low tracks through and the cold front blasts through Monday night, with a breezy start to Tuesday as reality (and March) set in with temperatures closer to 50 for a couple of days midweek.