After this Spring Fling ends tomorrow with a cold front we'll have a couple of days to return to reality before a storm system spreads east with a pair of strung out low pressure events to start next week. Computer guidance varies quite a bit on specifics but generally agrees on a few points. The first agreement is that this will be a pair of events -- one on Sunday night into Monday, the other on Tuesday. The second agreement is that the first event will be milder than the second and that the second brings a potential for snow IF the track is right. After that, however, there are some pretty significant differences in the computer models.
The Euro is colder, with rain for Philly and a mix of rain/snow/freezing rain for the first system to our north, mainly north of I-78. By and large, the system is rain for us and not a big deal but it could bring some ice IF the Euro scenario is correct.
Contrast it to the GFS, which is much warmer and is blasting the region with mild west-southwest winds and light showers for the most part. Little, if any rain would be expected for the first round under the GFS scenario and the model is projecting temperatures near 60 on Monday afternoon IF it's correct. It's projecting a stronger low, which lifts north of our region, in contrast to the weaker and farther south Euro.
In the end, some form of compromise between the cooler Euro and the warmer GFS seems likely. It won't matter much for us in terms of precipitation type on Monday but it may make the difference between near 60 degree weather on Monday or if we're just going to scrape into the 40's as the frontal zone lies to our south.
Regarding snow, Tuesday looks like there's a shot at it -- lots still up in air with track and low strength but these trailing low events don't always pan out as strong as models indicate. We'll keep an eye on it over the coming days.
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