Severe T-Storm Watch Until 4 PM

Update, 12:20 PM: Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 PM for Philadelphia & Delco, along with Delaware and South Jersey (Burlington and Ocean Counties on south).   Radar is showing a line of thunderstorms and showers from Doylestown through West Chester, moving east.  This should move through Philadelphia around or just after 1 PM.   Winds could gust to over 60 mph with the squall line, which will be associated with the cold front as it crosses the region over the next couple of hours.



A mesoscale discussion has been issued for most of our area for the threat of severe thunderstorms. According to the Storm Prediction Center, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible by 1:00 p.m.

The Storm Prediction Center earlier today placed most of Central and Southern New Jersey under a slight risk for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting hail, but they are forecasting a probability of damaging wind gusts even an isolated tornado. The environment does have increasing shear, so a tornado concern would not be completely unwarranted by any means. But very severe winds aloft can easily be transported to the surface with any thunderstorm and therefore the risk of damaging winds is the primary concern.

The limiting factors for thunderstorms could be the lack of sunshine. But, there appears to be some clearing that will spread into areas as far north as Central New Jersey. However, there still is some very modest instability with the warm sector now arriving in place. Temperatures will continue to increase, reaching the lower sixties to mid-sixties in most of Southern New Jersey. Dew points will also continue to increase and there will be rich moisture to work with.

Meanwhile, it will not take thunderstorms to produce very high winds this afternoon and this evening. A high wind warning is in effect for the potential of widespread damaging wind gusts as the front approaches and passes. Strong northwesterly winds are associated with an area of low pressure passing through Pennsylvania, which will eventually pass through New Jersey. It will be behind this low that we see the strongest gusts for a few hours. We received the heavy rain and some more heavy showers and thunderstorms could be on the way. Therefore, the ground will be saturated just in time for these strong winds increasing the chance of whole trees coming down, something the expected wind gusts in excess of 58 MPH will already be capable of doing with even a dry ground.