Early Rain, Heavy Storms Later

You may have been jarred awake this morning with some thunderstorms during the 1 and 2 AM hours.  Yeah, those storms really did happen overnight and radar this morning (up above) shows those storms lifting through the New York Metro area, with scattered rains lingering through the region .   There's a sharp cutoff from Selinsgrove to Lancaster to Wilmington, with that cutoff lifting northeast this morning.  The cutoff is in association with warm air aloft that is working through, with surface warmth not far behind (see the 50's down in Lower Delaware).

We will get into a break after 6 AM as the warm sector lifts into the region.  Areas to the north of the city may lurch into periods of showers through the day as the highest chances for a dry break look to be south of the PA Turnpike and I-195,  Temperatures will begin to climb as the day progresses and we should get into the 60's across much of the region today in response to the warm sector moving in.   Today's record high is 68 -- and we could very well approach that before the day is out as our forecast high is in the mid 60's.  Some areas south of the city could hit 70.

More storms are expected later today, however, with the potential for severe weather (see below) generally in the southern half of Pennsylvania and New Jersey on south.  The highest likelihood for severe thunderstorms will be after 3 PM from west to east, with the Philly area potentially getting hit during the 5-7 PM time frame, with strong and gusty winds to 60 mph the potential culprit if these storms do in fact fire.  In addition to the gusty wind potential, heavy rains are likely where those thunderstorms fall.

Flood Watches are still out for Eastern and Southeastern Pennsylvania, along with Central New Jersey, for the potential for a couple of inches of rain causing problems with streams and low lying areas later on today.   Those heavy rainfall totals are possible as well to the south, however, because of the relatively dry ground to the south of the city the flooding potential is not as high as it is to the north.

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