A Cool Battle Ahead

In the wake of last night's fluffy snow and the upcoming couple of days of cold that await, the transition to a more zonal pattern will take hold by this weekend if computer guidance is correct. This means we'll see some interesting battles between spring-like warmth in the Southeast and some winter chill in the northern tier of the country, which puts us in the firing line and "stuck in the middle" between the two camps. An active pattern seems to be shaping up for the next week to ten days, which means we'll have a few shots of precipitation before the end of next week and perhaps some frozen precipitation to deal with on at least one of those events.

Typically, true zonal patterns result in fairer weather across the country and milder temperatures in the East.  However, this isn't a pure "zonal" look in the sense of having mild weather and limited moisture.  With a stronger polar low over Central Canada, cold air will lurk nearby and occasionally seep farther south.   The Pacific will be a bit more active and provide additional moisture and storminess to the mix, with the Gulf open for business as the Southeast ridge will be shunted eastward into the Western Atlantic.   This pretty much means a family of storm systems -- some stronger than others -- will take a general track from Missouri to Ohio to New England over the next ten days.   The first of these will hit us on Friday, a stronger system that should pull warmth northward and bring a lot of rain to the region.  We could have some stream rises/localized flooding from this first storm as the snow that fell last night will be all gone by Friday but we're also looking at a potential for an inch to two inches of rain from this event.   Today's GFS run is a bit of a burp from past runs in that it suppresses the track of the storm to our south -- generally from Arkansas to Southern Virginia to the Delmarva -- and brings snow from Philly on north and rain south of the city...the Euro is farther north and milder.

Keep in mind that about this same timeframe out from this past storm the GFS was putting 60's into the Philadelphia region on Monday...didn't work out too well, did it?   It doesn't mean the GFS is wrong...but it is an its own and colder of the guidance.  The NAM, which is now seeing the storm, is a milder model.   We'll keep an eye on the other guidance and how this system evolves in the coming day in the US West.   Stay tuned...but with a skeptical eye.

Two, perhaps three more storm systems will follow after Friday's first event.   Storm #2 of this parade will be weaker and will track quickly in, impacting Saturday night into Sunday.   With cooler air lurking around from the wake of storm one, we could see some frozen precipitation with the second system, especially north of Philadelphia, before temperatures warm and precipitation possibly transitions to rain (GFS suggests a transition, Euro does not with system #2 as Euro keeps this system far weaker).    After that, another system lurks for midweek next week...this one looks a bit stronger and with that general track in place looks like rain at this point.