Minggu, 20 Februari 2011

Snow To The North, Not So Much Of Anything Here

Computer modeling for tonight's event is pretty much set on a snowy scenario to our north, with little to nothing around town as we get clipped by a larger surge of moisture that should generally cruise east along I-80 overnight tonight.   Precipitation is working east through the Ohio Valley this morning and should lift a bit more northeast as the day progresses, meaning that most precipitation should fall generally to the city's north overnight.   Timing wise, expect precipitation after 9 PM in Philadelphia.   High resolution radar (below) suggests precipitation starts up around 11 in Philadelphia.

Temperatures tonight will cut it rather close to freezing -- I'm not expecting the city to drop below freezing but there may be enough cold air aloft to allow for some snow or sleet to mix in with any rain in the city proper.  The farther north one goes, the better the moisture support, dynamics, and the better chances one will have for a snowy scenario.  In fact areas north of Scranton could see several inches of snow overnight.   Another concern for the folks in the Lehigh Valley and far northern suburbs is the potential for some icy rain to mix in as temperatures aloft warm before the surface.   The Lehigh Valley, Berks could see an inch of slush with a bit of icy rain on top of that slush.  

Assuming the higher resolution guidance is correct, precipitation won't last long in and around Philadelphia and most of the suburbs, meaning that the precipitation burst that we get tonight will be brief and won't amount to much.  The northern suburbs could end up with some coating type accumulations but widespread major snows aren't likely from round one of the one-two combination that we're getting over the next 48 hours.   The city should not see much, if anything, besides some snow or sleet possibly mixing in.  Even that, at this point, doesn't seem terribly likely but is certainly a possibility.

Due to the potential for more snow farther north, Winter Weather Advisories are out for the Poconos and Northeastern Pennsylvania for tonight and tomorrow morning.

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