The high wind warning remains in effect through late tonight. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH continue across the region with wind gusts in the range of 50 to 60 MPH. Some isolated higher wind gusts are likely. The strongest winds will be through early this evening, with the winds decreasing overtime. Numerous power outages have been reported and as long as the winds gust over 40 MPH, outages will continue to be an issue. Many will be in the dark through Sunday Morning. There is a possibility that the warning criteria winds will soon pass and that there could be a downgrade to a wind advisory this evening. Instead of a breakdown graphic tonight, I made a graphic showing some of the impressive wind gusts reported so far as of 4:00 p.m. Enhanced fire danger prompting the red flag warning in portions of the area should diminish with the wind decrease expected.
A warm front is projected to cross our region Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. The sun will be out early on Sunday with high clouds filtering in by late morning. Clouds will thicken throughout Sunday Afternoon. Temperatures may fall back a few degrees in the evening hours, coming off of our high temperatures of around 40 degrees. The clouds can play two roles here. One, they can keep the temperatures from rising to 40 degrees. Two, they can prevent temperatures from falling back to around freezing in the evening. The model guidance indicates the bulk of the precipitation with this front falling across Central Pennsylvania, just clipping the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Some lighter precipitation would impact the remainder of our area. So, if we were to see light precipitation and we have borderline temperatures, it would lead me to believe it would be more of a drizzle with any embedded heavier echoes producing some sleet. Where the showers are a bit more pronounced North and West of Philadelphia, this is where we could have an initial burst of wet snow and sleet, possibly mixing with rain. Overall, I doubt the mixing with the warm front will be a big deal. Around Mount Pocono, some freezing drizzle or freezing rain is possible whereas this is the best area for temperatures to fall back to around freezing prior to the precipitation arrival. The increasing low-level moisture will allow for some low cloud development. Another thing I will be watching with the warm frontal passage is a period of very gusty winds in Southern New Jersey and Delaware. We could have quite a temperature contrast from Northwest to Southeast on Monday. Of course the gusty wind would end any foggy conditions.
Temperatures will begin to fall off on Monday as the first system pushes away and drags a cold front through our region. There could be a gusty line of showers with the cold front. An area of low pressure will arrive for Monday Night into Tuesday, but pass to our south. Initially, the precipitation will likely start as some rain and as colder air in, expect a transition to wet snow and sleet. It continues to appear as though the heaviest axis of moisture will slide across Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey. However, the models have been shifting this axis with each run and it bears watching. Warmer ground temperatures and surface air temperatures above freezing support a wet snow and may hinder the accumulation, especially if there is light intensity. I think your best chances for accumulations, if at all, is Philadelphia, Lancaster, Hammonton, Cape May, Georgetown, Dover, and Wilmington. It remains possible the northern half of our region is overcast with flurries.
Another quick rebound is likely by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures once again could rise into the sixties. We could have another warm front bring a chance of rain showers on Friday. The timing of a cold front during the long term may end up squashing our chances for 60+, but for now...too much to focus on in the short term.
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