More Rain, More Storms, More Warmth Monday

Another strong storm system will push through the Northeast and the slight risk of severe weather continues to hold for the Mid Atlantic. The highest odds for severe weather will be to our south and west but around here there is a 15% chance that severe weather could occur near the city.   For February, it's impressive to have two slight risks in four day's time around these parts.   With a warm surge of temperatures and instability pushing north ahead of a strong storm system, the atmosphere will be ripe for storms but also heavy rain.

Rain could be significant across the Mid Atlantic with the storm impacting us in two waves.  The first, in association with a warm front, brings more rain to the north and west of the city than elsewhere but rain and some spring-like thunder can't be ruled out after midnight from southwest to northeast across the region.  Rainfall could total an inch across parts of Central into Northeastern Pennsylvania overnight and during the morning hours on Monday.   We probably will not see that type of rainfall tonight around Philadelphia but we could see a period of rain/thunder to start off Monday.

The warm front lifts north and Southeastern Pennsylvania, Central and South Jersey, and Delaware will get into a break between round one (warm front-enhanced rains) and round two (cold front).   Rains may continue across the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania, perhaps grazing the Lehigh Valley and Berks from time to time on Monday.   The "break" is critical for severe weather prospects as computer guidance is hinting at soaking thunderstorms developing or moving in after 4 PM.   If we get enough sunshine we could see temperatures approach 70 in Philadelphia (record high is 68) but even without sun, we should get into the 60's.   With an unstable atmosphere and decent dynamics aloft, the potential does exist for those storms to pop.    If you look at the higher resolution radar below you can see the heaviest activity is across South Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.  The activity over Maryland will spread into Southeastern Pennsylvania over the course of the early evening.  

With the storminess developing along the front and lifting northeast as the front slides east, the potential for upwards of two inches of rain exists for some parts of the region from tomorrow's storms.   The heaviest rain may ultimately fall in pockets as the cold front enhanced storms may develop in segments and not a solid line that sweeps through and hits everyone (see the precip totals on the graphic above), typical of a more "summery" thunderstorm setup.

We'll have another update in the morning hours on Monday.

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