Flood Watches Up N/W of I-95

A rather crappy weather day is about to unfold across the region as that significant storm system that brought tornado watches to nine states and dropped 80 reported tornadoes across the country is now setting its march on the Mid Atlantic.   While tornadoes are not likely by any stretch here, a rather wind swept and rainy Saturday afternoon and evening is.   The likelihood for at least an inch of rain for nearly everyone, with some two inch amounts north of the city, is setting up the possibility of some flooding in some locations.  Flood Watches are out for places north/west of I-95 in Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey for tonight as soil conditions are still moist and a heavy shot of rain is expected in short duration this evening.

Radar (below) this morning is showing the first waves of rain moving into the area from the west.  We should be able to coax a few dry hours this morning before showers spread in later, followed by heavier rains as we work towards dinner.    The worst of the storm won't be until this evening -- but a six hour period from 6 PM - Midnight will provide a rather wild stretch of rain, thunder, perhaps strong gusty winds in those storms.

A slight risk of severe weather is out for Delaware, Southwest New Jersey, and South Central Pennsylvania -- generally points south and west of the city -- as a bit of a low pressure wave rides along the advancing front today and helps enhance thunderstorm activity.   North of the wave, rain may be heaviest and those two inch amounts of rain could fall across Eastern Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey.  South/east of the wave is where thunderstorms could bring some strong wind gusts to the mix.   The GFS (below) shows the heavy rain blob generally north of the Philadelphia area at the height of the storm, between 8 and 11 PM.    Over an inch of rain may fall in just three hours.   The Euro (not shown) also is suggesting the heaviest of rains ride north/west of the city along and north of this wave of low pressure.

The NAM is showing the potential for torrential rains south/east of the low.  While that's possible, the NAM does have a tendency to overdo thunderstorm-induced rainfall.   It's possible that the storms may be wild and wacky, the rainfall results may not be as robust south of the city as they are to the north.

In a nutshell, expect a breezy and raw Spring day.  Conditions will continue to go downhill as the storm moves in later on, with rain increasing in coverage later on today and becoming heavy at times towards dinner.   Thunderstorms can't be ruled out and some of the storms will be pretty nasty from the city on south.

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