Ending Early Summer

After a multi-day run of 80+ degree weather around these parts, all good things must come to an end for a time. A stronger cold front will finally move into the region on Thursday after weaker boundaries failed to push into the Bermuda High in the Atlantic. This stronger storm system will not only end the 80 degree warmth but also bring a potentially nasty round of thunderstorms to the region -- if the timing is right.

Computer modeling consensus suggests the front passes through the region around midday Thursday -- the Euro and NAM computer models are latest and suggest a Thursday PM timeframe (more optimal for bad storms) while the GFS suggests a morning timeframe.   Storms that develop could bring strong gusty winds but given the setup of the storm system (shifting winds aloft) some tornadoes can't be ruled out.   Plenty can change given we're three days out but the setup, on paper, looks good for at least some severe weather around the region on Thursday.   We'll update the potential as we get closer but it looks like summer's first foray in the region could end with a few pops and bangs.

Before that, however, there is a chance for some thunderstorms on Wednesday as the humid airmass that's moving north could pull some tropical moisture into the region from a disturbance that's down in the Bahamas at present.   The tropical disturbance won't become a tropical storm or anything of the sort but it could enhance some thunderstorms in parts of the region on Wednesday afternoon.