Thunder Chances Before Thursday's Main Event

The current severe weather event across the central portions of the country is rather amazing -- the damage in St. Louis to their airport last Friday, the run of storms through Arkansas yesterday, and over 15" of rain in some portions of the Ozarks from the current pattern has been remarkable to watch unfold. This storm system is finally easing east and will work towards us for Thursday. However, it will be close enough to us tomorrow to increase the odds of thunder around the region.

A slight risk of severe weather was placed out for the region for Wednesday for areas west of Philadelphia, with the highest concentration of severe thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley down into the Mid South, including Nashville, Louisville, and parts of Alabama.   Our severe risk is more for Wednesday night if the storms move quickly enough, with the main focus area for severe weather on Thursday positioned squarely over the top of us as the front closes and crosses the region.

Despite the worst of storms being to our west tomorrow, there will be an added risk for showers and thunderstorms as the atmosphere is increasingly unstable the mid level cap that was over us on Monday and most of Tuesday weakens as high pressure's grip over the region weakens somewhat.   The strong southwest flow at the lower levels and mid levels of the atmosphere will help tug tropical moisture that is east of Florida and Georgia northward into the region on Wednesday.  This will increase the thunder risk and probably lower our daytime temperatures by several degrees.  While it will still be warm, the additional clouds will keep us from getting into the 80's like we have the past three days.   Some showers and storms will develop and move through the region over the course of the day, some of which may produce heavy rainfall due to the quasi-tropical airmass that will be in place.

Storms will be scattered in nature and move through from southwest to northeast during the day and ahead of Thursday's main event, which continues to show signs of being a rather potent event whether it be a wind threat or heavy rain threat...both of which are definitely possible as a squall line may develop along the cold front Thursday afternoon.

Hopefully you have been able to enjoy most of the past three days -- while the weather hasn't been 100% perfect all of the time the past few, it's been the best weather we've had in a while.  Unfortunately, things will head downhill from here...especially on Thursday.