April 25th, 2011 Forecast

Thunderstorms this evening may be severe in spots and is just one of a few disturbances that will impact the region this week.  While the overall theme of the upcoming week is warmer...heck, even tropical-like as the Bermuda High flexes for the first time this warm season, it will not necessarily be dry as a broad southwest flow of warmth aloft and at the surface drag humidity north and bring some storm chances along with it.   With the boundary separating the warmth from the less warm lurking around the region through tomorrow before it finally gets kicked into New York State, another round of thunder can't be ruled out during Monday afternoon as another disturbance slides east-northeast along the front.

Forecasting temperatures correctly for tomorrow is not an easy science and is arguably more luck than skill but is based on the idea that the front will lurk nearby.   Temperatures could be a good bit cooler north depending on cloud cover and timing of precipitation but we're going with low 70's in the Lehigh Valley, warming to 80 in the suburban counties as the front should lie between Philly & Allentown.  Inland areas from the city on south should approach or reach the 80's, perhaps mid 80's in the usual warm spots in South Jersey and Delaware.  The Shore, given the time of the year and winds from the south and southwest, will probably be in the 60's to around 70.   If the front slips south, high temperatures will not get as high in Philadelphia.  Just be forewarn that things could be cooler than advertised in the city on Monday.    We'll generally wake up to 50's and 60's, coolest along the coast and warmest along I-95.

Week Ahead:   Tuesday may ultimately be the warmest day of the stretch as we get firmly entrenched in the warm sector and temperatures jump into the 80's just about everywhere except the Shore.  Warmth lingers into Wednesday but with more clouds...and thunder chances increasing...it may not be as warm.   Storms move through on Thursday with the front and we have a decent shot at severe weather on Thursday if the timing of the frontal passage is after midday.   Friday and Saturday are "cooler" but rather nice days on the whole, with the beginning of May possibly featuring a chance for a storm or two as a cool front moves east.