Senin, 11 April 2011

Strong Evening Storms Possible N & W

 
In addition to today's run towards record warmth the potential exists for severe weather across Pennsylvania. Today's warmth is brought to you by an advancing cold front that, as of this morning, is back across Michigan and Northwestern Ohio.  It's going to march on east today and take its thunderstorms with it.  By dinner time, thunderstorms should be on the march across Central Pennsylvania and given the warm, unstable air ahead of the front (temperatures in the 80's in Pennsylvania, dewpoints around 60) thunderstorms have the potential to be severe with damaging wind gusts.  

Higher resolution radar below shows the storms by 8 PM bisecting the state.  The higher res radar might be a bit slow with the eastward progression compared to the GFS and Euro but it's not enough of a difference as far as we're concerned in terms of timing, track, and intensity.  Storms should hold off in Central Pennsylvania until dinner time, perhaps after that if the high res radar is closer to being right, with thunderstorms not moving into Philadelphia until after 9 or 10 PM tonight, meaning we should be able to coax a decent early evening of activities outside before rumbles of thunder approach.


The severe potential is higher to our west today due to timing and better dynamics.  The atmosphere will have had some time to settle down here this evening before thunderstorms move in, plus the proximity of a mid 40 degree ocean will help to stabilize the atmosphere just enough to prevent real nasty stuff around here.  Strong, gusty winds are still possible but the worst of the thunderstorm activity will likely be across Central and Western Pennsylvania.

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