I am watching yet another severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley tonight. This cold front will move into our region on Sunday. The cold front will begin to come to put on the brakes and become nearly stationary across the Philadelphia area on Easter. The model guidance suggests a weak wave of low pressure developing on the front as well. The development of a weak wave suggests showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered throughout our region through the daytime hours, especially in the late afternoon into the evening hours. It is possible we see some sunshine at times which would cause instability to increase in our region. This will be dependent as to just how much cloud debris remains or if even a rogue thunderstorm survives from the activity moving in from Ohio. Bulk shear looks decent and lapse rates should become steep, especially with any surface heating that can be initiated. There is a question as to just how high the dew points rise and the exact amount of convergence. Nevertheless, we are looking at some severe thunderstorms as a possibility on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of our region in a slight risk designation for severe thunderstorms on Sunday in their day two outlook. Without a better handle on the degree of heating and the placement of the best forcing, I will not get into the specifics as to what severe weather elements we could be facing at this moment.
The cold front becomes a warm front on Monday and moves back to our north. Some additional energy may ride along the front and until it moves well to our north, there remains the chance of showers and thunderstorms. A scattered strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Should the sun come out on Monday, which I think it has a shot at doing; temperatures could surge past 80 degrees south of Philadelphia with sixties and seventies elsewhere. A large spread in temperature is possible on Monday.
On Tuesday, the warm front is expected to be well away from our region and without any real trigger; the thinking is that it will be very warm and perhaps even somewhat humid. My guess is that any sea-breeze front or any unforeseen small focus could do the trick in initiating an isolated shower or thunderstorm and so these factors will be viewed more closely within 24 hours of the forecast day. Wednesday is more of the same, with a slight shower chance.
Very similar to previous events over the past several months, a wave of low pressure will develop and deepen in the Great Lakes region into Southern Canada. This will likely push a potent, energized cold front into our forecast area on Thursday. Unlike the previous events, the instability may be a bit stronger in our region. This looks to be, from this distance, the best opportunity for severe thunderstorms and strong wind gusts of the entire seven day forecast period.
Unless timing differences in future forecasts develop, the weekend looks relatively nice. Have a great Easter everyone!
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar