Slight Risk For Severe Tomorrow

You would think that today's chill and showers would lead to more chill and showers. For once, that's not the case. The stalled front is due to lift northward tomorrow and we should get into a several hour period of warmth during the midday and afternoon hours.    Low pressure (which helps nudge the front north) will track east through the Great Lakes and along the NY/PA border tomorrow afternoon, dragging a cold front back through the region late tomorrow evening.   This front will get agitated by the warm, unstable airmass between the warm front and cold front and the potential for severe weather exists in the region tomorrow afternoon and evening.   The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow, with a heightened risk for severe weather across the Delaware Valley down into Washington, DC.  

Timing is everything, however, with the storms firing up and are dependent on sunshine plus warm sector influence.    With that said, there's a good bit of pop in the atmosphere int he warm sector so there should be some activity for at least some folks.   The thinking is the warm front should get north of the Lehigh Valley by midday and allow for enough warming for everyone to allow for thunder chances late in the afternoon.  The NAM and higher res modeling suggests that this takes place between 4 and 7 PM in Philadelphia.   The GFS and Euro are less enthusiastic on severe but highlight the potential for some showers and storms around the area.

Winds could gust to 50+ mph with the line of thunder as it forms.  Hail does not seem likely at this point but any storms that do pop could not only drop strong winds but also heavy rain as they move east.   Some poor drainage area flooding can't be ruled out tomorrow afternoon in some of the heaviest storms.