Ending February With Warmth

Two records to talk about today in the region -- a tied record in Wilmington (66) and a set record at Atlantic City (70, beating the old record of 68).  Where the warm front set up (generally south of 195, east of 95 in the region) is where temperatures took off today, with mid 60's common along the coastal plain in Jersey, giving way to 70's from Atlantic City, Dover and points south.   The 73 degree reading in Georgetown was one off their record from 1997.

Farther north and west, it was cooler but still above average for this time of the year as temperatures topped out generally in the 50's in most locations in Pennsylvania.  

Today's high in Philadelphia marks the fifth time this month we topped 60 degrees, which equals the number of 60 degree days we saw in February 2002, both months the highest total for February 60 degree days since 1990, when it was nailed seven times.

Not Much Of A Big Deal

There was more bang and pop for the thunderstorm buck this morning with the early morning thunderstorms that moved through the region than with this afternoon's meager round of light rain. While the region was spared a heavy soaking and flooding issues, the timing of this afternoon's rainfall (arriving into the western and northern burbs around 11 AM) was early enough to preclude thunderstorm development around here. We can also blame a surface warm front for not being able to progress past Philadelphia during the daylight hours, which prevented temperatures from really taking off in Philadelphia like they did farther south and east (Atlantic City reached a record with 70 degrees...we'll highlight that a little later).

In total, the midday rains brought just 0.07" of rain to Philadelphia (total of a quarter inch as of 5 PM) and more or less just dampened the atmosphere a fair bit.   More rain did fall to the north, with Allentown and Reading picking up between a third of an inch and a half inch.  However, this storm system pretty much failed in computer modeling all around -- from rainfall totals to thunderstorms to temperatures.   The storm is overperforming across the Southeast as a line of severe thunderstorms extends from the Carolinas on southwest into the Deep South.  The best dynamics and energy ultimately set up farther south with this storm while the surface warm front did not quite push as far north as predicted by anyone.

As a result, today's thundery potential busted and we ended up with just a steady round of midday rain while areas farther south got in on the thunderstorms.

Tornado Watch

Here is the complete watch information.

A large tornado watch is out for much of AL, north GA, eastern TN, parts of the Upstate of SC and western NC. The watch includes the western portions of the Charlotte viewing area and western and northern parts of the Triad viewing area. The watch is out until 8pm.

Showers and storms in parts of Tennessee and Alabama will continue to strengthen and develop eastward through the afternoon and into this evening. Tornadoes will be possible with any storm for the next several hours. In time, this should evolve into a big line of storms, and damaging winds will become the primary threat as this shift into the Carolinas later on. However, a few tornadoes will still be possible within the line of storms.

Have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings this afternoon and evening. And of course, we will have you completely up to date on News 14 Carolina.

March 1st, 2011 Forecast

Rain has ended in Philadelphia while continuing to the south and east of the city.  Expect rain to taper off this evening from northwest to southeast as the front slowly slides through.   Until the front crosses, temperatures will stay mild for the next few hours and winds will remain light.

After the front crosses, breezy conditions and colder temperatures will return overnight. Low temperatures by morning will range from 30 north to the mid 30's around Philadelphia and south.   Winds, once the front crosses, will be from the north and northwest at 12-20 mph with higher gusts.

Tuesday:   Sunshine and "typical" early March temperatures.  Early breezes at 10-16 mph will diminish to 5 mph in the afternoon.   Expect daytime highs in the mid and upper 40's across the region on what will amount to a pretty nice afternoon in the Delaware Valley.

We'll provide updates on the thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, with a full recap once the activity clears altogether.

Severe thoughts...

Be sure and scroll down to the post below this one for today's Carolina Weather Video. I cover lots of ground on there....and spend a majority of the time on today's storm system.

Near record warmth will again be with us across the region today. Look for Piedmont highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and winds gusting out of the southwest to 35+mph.

This is setting the state for the arrival of our next storm system. The new Day 2 outlook is out, and there weren't any really huge changes. The Carolinas remain largely in the 'slight risk' area, with a 'moderate risk' in the Tennessee Valley in the western tip of NC. Tornado watches stretch from north and central MS to Ohio and southwest PA as of 8:30am.

For the Piedmont of the Carolinas, I expect showers and storms to develop in later this afternoon and exit to the east later this evening. I expect the line of storms to make it into the northern foothills by mid-afternoon and near the Triad by mid-late afternoon.

For the Charlotte area, the arrival will likely be from late afternoon into early evening.

Wind damage will be the primary threat, but a few isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. I only expect dewpoints to make it into the 50s today, so not a ton of instability. However, I think there will be enough for at least some severe weather.

Here is the Day 2 severe weather outlook....

And here are the wind probabilities....

Severe weather potential...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I spend a lot of time dealing with today and tonight's severe weather potential. I also look at the rest of the week and the upcoming weekend. Give it a look....

Early Rain, Heavy Storms Later

You may have been jarred awake this morning with some thunderstorms during the 1 and 2 AM hours.  Yeah, those storms really did happen overnight and radar this morning (up above) shows those storms lifting through the New York Metro area, with scattered rains lingering through the region .   There's a sharp cutoff from Selinsgrove to Lancaster to Wilmington, with that cutoff lifting northeast this morning.  The cutoff is in association with warm air aloft that is working through, with surface warmth not far behind (see the 50's down in Lower Delaware).

We will get into a break after 6 AM as the warm sector lifts into the region.  Areas to the north of the city may lurch into periods of showers through the day as the highest chances for a dry break look to be south of the PA Turnpike and I-195,  Temperatures will begin to climb as the day progresses and we should get into the 60's across much of the region today in response to the warm sector moving in.   Today's record high is 68 -- and we could very well approach that before the day is out as our forecast high is in the mid 60's.  Some areas south of the city could hit 70.

More storms are expected later today, however, with the potential for severe weather (see below) generally in the southern half of Pennsylvania and New Jersey on south.  The highest likelihood for severe thunderstorms will be after 3 PM from west to east, with the Philly area potentially getting hit during the 5-7 PM time frame, with strong and gusty winds to 60 mph the potential culprit if these storms do in fact fire.  In addition to the gusty wind potential, heavy rains are likely where those thunderstorms fall.

Flood Watches are still out for Eastern and Southeastern Pennsylvania, along with Central New Jersey, for the potential for a couple of inches of rain causing problems with streams and low lying areas later on today.   Those heavy rainfall totals are possible as well to the south, however, because of the relatively dry ground to the south of the city the flooding potential is not as high as it is to the north.

More:   Current Weather

More Rain, More Storms, More Warmth Monday

Another strong storm system will push through the Northeast and the slight risk of severe weather continues to hold for the Mid Atlantic. The highest odds for severe weather will be to our south and west but around here there is a 15% chance that severe weather could occur near the city.   For February, it's impressive to have two slight risks in four day's time around these parts.   With a warm surge of temperatures and instability pushing north ahead of a strong storm system, the atmosphere will be ripe for storms but also heavy rain.

Rain could be significant across the Mid Atlantic with the storm impacting us in two waves.  The first, in association with a warm front, brings more rain to the north and west of the city than elsewhere but rain and some spring-like thunder can't be ruled out after midnight from southwest to northeast across the region.  Rainfall could total an inch across parts of Central into Northeastern Pennsylvania overnight and during the morning hours on Monday.   We probably will not see that type of rainfall tonight around Philadelphia but we could see a period of rain/thunder to start off Monday.

The warm front lifts north and Southeastern Pennsylvania, Central and South Jersey, and Delaware will get into a break between round one (warm front-enhanced rains) and round two (cold front).   Rains may continue across the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania, perhaps grazing the Lehigh Valley and Berks from time to time on Monday.   The "break" is critical for severe weather prospects as computer guidance is hinting at soaking thunderstorms developing or moving in after 4 PM.   If we get enough sunshine we could see temperatures approach 70 in Philadelphia (record high is 68) but even without sun, we should get into the 60's.   With an unstable atmosphere and decent dynamics aloft, the potential does exist for those storms to pop.    If you look at the higher resolution radar below you can see the heaviest activity is across South Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.  The activity over Maryland will spread into Southeastern Pennsylvania over the course of the early evening.  

With the storminess developing along the front and lifting northeast as the front slides east, the potential for upwards of two inches of rain exists for some parts of the region from tomorrow's storms.   The heaviest rain may ultimately fall in pockets as the cold front enhanced storms may develop in segments and not a solid line that sweeps through and hits everyone (see the precip totals on the graphic above), typical of a more "summery" thunderstorm setup.

We'll have another update in the morning hours on Monday.

More:   Current Weather Page

Weather Rewind, February 20-26, 2011

Last week was awfully volatile -- going from snow to severe thunderstorm warnings in just 84 hours around Philadelphia -- as Mother Nature was throwing meteorological tantrums across the Mid Atlantic as the transition from winter chill to warmth begins its painstakingly slow transition.   With all of the volatility over the past seven days, temperatures averaged out to exactly "normal" over the last week.   As we all know, last week's weather was hardly that.  Winds to 54 mph, squall lines, thunderstorms, and six inches of snow were just a few examples of the wild and wacky weather that greeted the Delaware Valley between Monday and Friday.   The "normal" days in terms of not having wacky weather were Thursday and Saturday -- relatively modest weather was featured on both days.

Nationally, the tantrums were most severe across the High Plains of Montana and North Dakota -- with temperatures over twenty degrees below average for the week.  This was in sharp contrast with high pressure over the Southeast bringing warmth to Deep South.  Of course, severe weather and heavy rain greeted these areas on Thursday with a significant squall line sweeping through the Mid South.

February 28th, 2011 Forecast

The second impressive storm system in four days will march through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Monday, bringing more rain, more wind, the potential for more severe weather, and also more warmth.   February is leaving like a hungry lion as this storm system could bring some impressive rainfall totals by the time we're all done with it tomorrow night.

Tonight:  Clouds will thicken up overnight and some rain is possible towards morning, with steadier rains and higher chances for rain to the north and west of the city.   Tonight's rain is brought to you by a warm front that will lift north through the region tonight and tomorrow morning.   Low temperatures overnight will range from the mid 30's north of the city to the mid 40's in Philadelphia and points south, with temperatures possibly rising towards daybreak south of the city.

Monday:  Becoming mild with occasional rain and thunder through the day, with less of a break possible north of the city and a longer break in the rain to the south.   In between the morning and evening rounds of storms, some sunshine is possible for Philadelphia and points south.  If we get enough sunshine, temperatures will warm above what is forecast here and we could tie or even hit the record high for Monday (68) in the city.  Temperatures will vary a good bit from north to south, with 50's in the Lehigh Valley giving way to the 60's in the Philadelphia metro, with 70 possible in Delaware tomorrow afternoon.   Late in the afternoon, heavy rain and thunder will begin to spread back into the area from the west with the cold front.   We'll update the "how much" and the potential for severe later on this afternoon.

Week Ahead:   Temperatures bounce all over the map over the next seven days, with mild days possible on Wednesday and again this weekend.   Wednesday's warmth will be in advance of a cold front that slips south from Canada and cools us off for Thursday.   Another storm system will march east for Saturday and Sunday, bringing more rain to the region.

Sunday afternoon...

An 'open windows warning' is in effect this afternoon. Most temps well up into the 70s....even a few lower 80s this afternoon in the Piedmont. Enjoy!

The new Day 2 convective outlook has out, and the SPC has beefed up the severe probabilities. Accordingly, a 'moderate risk' is out for a big chunk of the Southeast.

Again, review those severe weather safety plans. I will have the full slate of info on my products here and on News 14 Carolina in the morning.

Sunday...another severe weather producer on the way...

Quick Sunday morning thoughts....

Today will be very quiet and warm around the Carolinas. Highs today will warm into the 70s in many spots....same deal tomorrow.

Off to our west, our next storm system is gearing up. Another moderate risk of severe weather covers much of the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley for later today and tonight.

That system will progress eastward, and this time around, there will be more instability in the Carolinas. The entire region is included in a Day 2 slight risk, and the probabilities put out by the SPC are actually fairly high.

I can't rule out any mode of severe weather with this one, and where the largest threat area sets up will depend on exactly how the best instability and dynamics interact tomorrow.

Since this is the first widespread severe weather potential of the season, now is a good time to review you way of hearing severe weather watches and warnings and review severe weather safety plans at your homes and businesses.

I will have a full post and video up bright and early in the morning.

Flood Watches For Monday PM For Some

Another slug of rain and wind are on the way, with potentially over an inch of rain in the offing for Monday afternoon and evening.   Due to the low tolerance of streams and watersheds to handle water in the northern and western suburbs, a flood watch is out for Monday PM for Southeastern Pennsylvania and three counties in Central New Jersey.

In some of these counties, the ground is pretty well soaked and flood guidance is just over an inch of rain in a six hour period.   As thunderstorms are poised to develop on Monday afternoon and evening, heavy rainfall could sweep through these waterlogged counties and lead to some stream flooding, ponding of water on roadways, and water collecting in low lying areas.

Computer guidance is suggesting upwards of two inches of rain Monday evening in some locations, with the northern and western suburbs under the gun for the heaviest rainfall as of last night's guidance.

We'll have a more thorough update on the storm's potential to bring heavy rain, severe weather, and a surge of warmth in advance of all of this "fun" in a post later on today.

Gusty Storms & Potentially Heavy Rain Again

We're going to get a rinse and repeat setup with the next storm system and the chance for more showers and storms on Monday could result in some flooding issues to the north and west of Philadelphia as more heavy rain is expected. All computer guidance suggests that low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through on Monday night, putting us squarely in the warm sector on Monday and bringing us the potential for strong and gusty thunderstorms Monday evening as the cold front crosses the region.

After some rain on Sunday night and Monday morning, we get a break around midday before the main action with the front crosses the region Monday evening.   Computer guidance suggests the potential for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to break out ahead of the front -- and the Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Pennsylvania, Southwest New Jersey, and Delaware under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday for the potential for gusty winds with that line of thunderstorms should it develop.   Ahead of the front, warm and unstable air will push northward during the day and we could see temperatures make a run at 70 south of Philadelphia and squarely into the 60's into Southeastern Pennsylvania.   Dynamics will certainly support the thunder potential -- if we can break out into enough sunshine we could see that potential turn into reality.

Farther northwest, heavy rain could spread across Pennsylvania and bring some flooding to Northern and Central Pennsylvania as the NAM suggests above.  The GFS has that axis of heavier rain over Western Pennsylvania and Upstate New York and also has a second axis along a secondary low that develops along the cold front (the low tracks just south of Philadelphia and brings heavy rainfall potential across Maryland and Delaware).     There's still some fine-tuning on the details with the heavier rainfall on Monday.

More wind is definitely possible as the low tracks through and the cold front blasts through Monday night, with a breezy start to Tuesday as reality (and March) set in with temperatures closer to 50 for a couple of days midweek.

Forecast for Sunday, February 27, 2011

A clipper system will pass to our north tonight. The computer models are not indicating any measurable precipitation across the region. It will be a mostly cloudy night and it will remain fairly cloudy on Sunday Morning. There could be some scattered snow flurries or sprinkles. A steady snow shower may develop across the Poconos and move into Northwestern New Jersey. Otherwise, temperatures will respond to a more west-southwest flow and I expect some areas to rise into the fifties.

On Sunday Night and Monday Morning, a warm front will lift through the region. Rain will develop and possibly a thunderstorm. Initially, some sleet or freezing rain will occur in Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex [NJ] Counties. The warm front will clear much of the region and more than half of the region will enter the warm sector. While the southern areas will be more entrenched, meaning warmer temperatures, I think everyone in the immediate Philadelphia area has an opportunity to rise into the sixties if the clouds and rain clear by the afternoon hours. Some of the southern counties could even rise to around seventy degrees. Meanwhile, northern areas could be stuck in the forties with periods of rain and possibly some good downpours.

The winds could really mix to the surface with the sunshine ahead of a strong evening and nighttime cold front. However, the highest winds may be reserved with a potential line of thunderstorms that will move in from the west during the evening and then again another round of gusty winds with the cold front itself. This could be more of a convective wind event, but wind advisory to high wind warning winds cannot be ruled out prior to and after the frontal passage. The wind threat can be more closely looked at on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the region in a slight risk designation for severe weather in their day three convective outlook. I would say that is fairly significant for our region during this time of the year. The night arrival of possible convection could be a limiting factor as instability could wane to some degree especially during the last few hours of a winter month. Some of our wind events have done pretty well despite it being night, so I think at least a low probability is warranted. The North American Model makes me wonder if the first few hours of March will come in like a lion. Overall, I think the 12z NAM is placing the convection and moisture in a more logical form than the 12z GFS, but the NAM is a bit too slow on timing.

There could be a cold front dragged across our region on Wednesday. This may be increase the clouds and perhaps lead to a rain shower.

The next significant storm would most likely be during a timeframe of March 4 and March 8. The 06z and 12z GFS Model hints at a pretty fairly decent precipitation event with a lot of liquid to work with. The North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be at least dipping a bit south during this time period and therefore something could be brewing. March 12 and 13 of last year is when we saw a complete pattern change and reversal towards above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. The pattern change was marked with an historic wind storm and flood during those two days.

Bouncing Around

Today's high temperature of 63 degrees in Philadelphia is the first foray into the 60's in a week, coming seven days after a 69 degree burst in Philadelphia and just days after picking up 6" of snow.  Nothing like the wild ride of late winter -- going from record warmth to snow to severe weather all in a week's time.    With another 60 degree day looming on Monday to close out meteorological winter, it looks likely that we'll have one month of above average temperatures (February) for this winter but that we'll end up below average overall for December-February.

Today's squall line brought some damage but the worst impact came on the heels of today's squall -- winds gusting to 66 mph in Lewes, DE and 63 mph in Philadelphia -- enough to cause damage in a number of locations around the region, including in Atlantic City where some damage occurred to billboards near the Boardwalk.   In the wake of the squall, temperatures dropped 15 degrees between 3 and 5 PM in Philadelphia (from 58 to 43).  In Pottstown, the drop was 16 degrees between 3 and 5 PM (57 to 41).

By the way, no record highs today in the region -- Philadelphia's record high is 79 degrees from 1930.

February 26th and 27th, 2011 Forecast

After today's blast of wind and rain, tonight will be quite windy before things calm down for the weekend.   Temperatures will start off cool on Saturday, moderating on Sunday as milder air works northward.   There could be some rain and snow showers on Saturday night to our north as a weak disturbance works east, some of it could accumulate in the Poconos.  We probably won't see anything around Philadelphia, however.

Tonight:   Quite windy in the evening and turning colder, with diminishing winds towards morning.  Low temperatures will bottom out in the 20's.   Winds will be gusty from the west at 20-35 mph sustained, gusting to 50 mph early in the evening, before diminishing to 10 mph towards morning.

Saturday:   Less wind and a mix of sun and clouds as a small ridge of high pressure builds through.   Daytime highs will top out in the lower and middle 40's.   Saturday night will feature that wave of snow and/or rain working through the northern parts of the region, with some accumulation in the Poconos possible.  Lows Saturday night will range from 30-35.  

Sunday:   Variably cloudy, with a bit more sun south of town and a bit more cloudiness to the north.  Early rain and snow showers depart for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, with moderating temperatures through the day.  Highs range from the upper 40's north to the mid 50's south.

Coming This Weekend:   We'll highlight the Monday storm, which looks to be quite similar to what hit us today but perhaps warmer.

Wild, Windy Afternoon With Strong Winds!

Incredible! A sustained wind of 46 MPH was reported at Philadelphia International Airport at 3:55 p.m. A gust to 54 MPH was reported.

Other wind gusts around the region at 4 PM include 47 mph in Coatesville, 44 mph in Lancaster and Northeast Philadelphia, 54 mph (sustained at 39 mph) in Wilmington, and 52 in Trenton.

3:10 p.m. Update: Sustained Winds as of 2:55 P.M. :

Washington-Dulles: 43 MPH

Fredrick, Maryland: 36 MPH

Baltimore-Washington: 37 MPH

Harrisburg: 33 MPH

Lancaster: 33 MPH

Northeast Philadelphia: 33 MPH

Wilmington: 32 MPH

Philadelphia International 30 MPH

Numerous gusts in the 45 to 60 MPH range.

While the line of thunderstorms pushes east, it is time to emphasize what is going to happen next. There could be a lull in the wind for the next hour, but it will rapidly pick up shortly.

As of 1:54 p.m., Lancaster Airport and Hagerstown Regional Airport (both to our west) have reported sustained winds of 41 MPH. Washington D.C. also reported a sustained wind of 39 MPH. To put this in perspective, sustained tropical storm force winds are 39 to 73 MPH. It is very rare to see the sustained high wind warning criteria being met in the Delaware Valley and it is possible we could see this happen.

The high wind warning remains in effect and the winds will mean serious business late this afternoon and early this evening. Certainly, gusts of 40 to 60 MPH will down many trees and cause widespread outages. But in the areas that see 35 to 45 MPH sustained winds, there could be quite a few problems.

Friday afternoon...

It is quite breezy out there this afternoon. Sustained winds across much of the Piedmont are in the 15-30mph range with gusts to 30-40mph. Winds are even higher in the mountains with gusts over 60mph at times.

The band of rain overperformed a bit when you got up around the Triad to the VA border region. The Triad itself received about a half inch, but some spots a little north of there got closer to an inch.

In the southern Piedmont and much of the Triangle region, click here, then come back for the rest of the discussion.

Amounts were generally less than a tenth of an inch. Not what we needed, and nothing to even put a small chink in the drought's armor.

The weekend looks quiet with sunshine tomorrow and clouds rolling in Sunday.

The next system arrives later Monday and Monday evening. Another round of showers, and maybe a few storms, will arrive then. For the spots that missed out on any decent rain, I think the odds are that a little more rain will fall, but with the primary surface low tracking well north once again, don't look for drought-denting rains. We will watch the severe potential too....a little more instability to work with, plus a more favorable time of day for storms.

It was indeed an active severe weather day yesterday across the MS and TN Valley. Here is the compilation of storm reports.

Severe T-Storm Watch Until 4 PM

Update, 12:20 PM: Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 PM for Philadelphia & Delco, along with Delaware and South Jersey (Burlington and Ocean Counties on south).   Radar is showing a line of thunderstorms and showers from Doylestown through West Chester, moving east.  This should move through Philadelphia around or just after 1 PM.   Winds could gust to over 60 mph with the squall line, which will be associated with the cold front as it crosses the region over the next couple of hours.



A mesoscale discussion has been issued for most of our area for the threat of severe thunderstorms. According to the Storm Prediction Center, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible by 1:00 p.m.

The Storm Prediction Center earlier today placed most of Central and Southern New Jersey under a slight risk for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting hail, but they are forecasting a probability of damaging wind gusts even an isolated tornado. The environment does have increasing shear, so a tornado concern would not be completely unwarranted by any means. But very severe winds aloft can easily be transported to the surface with any thunderstorm and therefore the risk of damaging winds is the primary concern.

The limiting factors for thunderstorms could be the lack of sunshine. But, there appears to be some clearing that will spread into areas as far north as Central New Jersey. However, there still is some very modest instability with the warm sector now arriving in place. Temperatures will continue to increase, reaching the lower sixties to mid-sixties in most of Southern New Jersey. Dew points will also continue to increase and there will be rich moisture to work with.

Meanwhile, it will not take thunderstorms to produce very high winds this afternoon and this evening. A high wind warning is in effect for the potential of widespread damaging wind gusts as the front approaches and passes. Strong northwesterly winds are associated with an area of low pressure passing through Pennsylvania, which will eventually pass through New Jersey. It will be behind this low that we see the strongest gusts for a few hours. We received the heavy rain and some more heavy showers and thunderstorms could be on the way. Therefore, the ground will be saturated just in time for these strong winds increasing the chance of whole trees coming down, something the expected wind gusts in excess of 58 MPH will already be capable of doing with even a dry ground.

Hold on to your hats!

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of wind today, quiet this weekend, and the next system later Monday.

Freaky Friday

The morning radar and temperature overlay is showing a "lull" between rounds -- this looks like a three round event at play as round one has lifted through most of the city and is about to lift through Bucks and the eastern suburbs, and round two is approaching us from the west in Central Pennsylvania.   In the interim, a couple of "dry" hours except for spray on the roads.    Temperatures this morning are pretty much in line with what we thought as a warm front lurks just to our south -- 40's in place around town this morning, with 50's in Lower Delaware, and 30's in the Poconos where icy rain has fallen for much of the evening.

The radar look on the left shows a bit of a wider view of the incoming storm and the other two rounds.   Round two is the batch in Central Pennsylvania in association with surface low pressure that will ride east-northeast through the state today.  As this moves through later this morning, expect a round of rain to come back in (probably after 7, 8 AM) and for some of that rain to be heavy in the northern suburbs.  Farther south, showery rain will dash through.   Around midday, this second round of rain clears the coast and we enter a dry slot between this and the upper level energy that lurks back in Ohio (you can see a break in Eastern Ohio on the left edge of the map).   Winds will shift to the west-southwest and increase to 15-25 mph, with some clearing possible for a couple of hours as those west-southwest winds 'dry' out the lower atmosphere.    As that upper energy works east and pulls cold air in, thunderstorms or gusty showers could break out along the leading edge of the colder air.   Those showers/storms will work through between 3 and 5 PM and could bring a brief, heavy shower but more importantly, bring the strongest winds of the day to those areas they impact assuming they develop.   Winds could gust to 60 mph, perhaps higher in those gusty showers/storms.   By definition, that's severe criteria so it's possible we could see a few rogue warnings this afternoon across Southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey.

Temperature-wise, it's going to be a bouncy day.  Around Philadelphia, temperatures will stay in the 40's until late morning before they begin to spike in the dryslot.  We could get into the 60's for a time south of the city but could approach that mark around the city for a couple of hours if we get some sun.   As the front/gusty showers work in towards dinner we will see temperatures drop off after 5 PM through the 50's and 40's over the course of the evening, leading to a cool and windy night.

More:   Current Weather Page

Soaking, Windswept, Perhaps Thundery

The next 24 hours will bring a soaker of a storm through parts of the Delaware Valley, with the potential for a couple of inches of rain expected to our north.   As a result, flood watches are out north and west of Philadelphia for tonight and Friday for the potential of heavier rains that could cause localized flooding of streams and roadways.   Around Philadelphia, this looks like a storm that will bring about an inch of rain, perhaps a touch more than that, as rain will pick up in earnest after 9 PM from southwest to northeast.    Light at first, it will become steadier and heavier after 2 AM tonight as a warm front lifts northward into the region and enhances precipitation that is currently falling.    The heaviest rain should be anticipated in a couple of rounds -- first of which is between 2 and 9 AM as the warm front lifts northward, bringing more moisture and rising temperatures towards morning.

As the warm front lifts through Philadelphia, south winds will increase the dewpoint and humidity and we'll break for a bit between the first round and the surface low, which will enhance precipitation towards midday.   Rain after the first slug will probably be a bit more showery in nature and less steady.    However, winds will increase in the warm sector so it will be a bit of a rainswept afternoon.   There could be a couple of rumbles of thunder towards midday, especially south and west, with the showers as they develop and lift northeast in the unstable airmass.

The higher resolution guidance and a couple of the computer models are hinting strongly at the potential for a bit of a squall line in the afternoon hours across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.   This is somewhat sunshine plus dry dependent -- if we can get a few hours of drier weather in the afternoon ahead of the cold front that trails the low, we could see a squall develop in Western Pennsylvania and march east through mid/late afternoon.   While the high res guidance suggests a 6 PM timing for Philadelphia, it would not surprise me if this were clearing the coast by 6 PM and moving into the western burbs shortly after 3 PM.   Temperatures could spike to near 60, perhaps warmer if we get more than a glance at the sun tomorrow afternoon, before the front and the potential squall line hit.

The squall line will bring some rather gusty winds to the equation -- perhaps reaching 60 mph in thunderstorms or in unassociated wind gusts after the front crosses by.   A high wind warning is out for the entire region for Friday afternoon and evening for the potential of those excessive wind gusts.  Even if 60 mph gusts don't verify, sustained winds of 20-35 mph in the afternoon and evening are certainly quite windy.

We'll have an update in the morning on where things stand and on the potential for the stronger storms in the afternoon hours tomorrow.

Severe weather...

Looks like severe weather is about to start exploding over parts of eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. In that general area, the CAPE has gotten up over 1500 J/kg and the helicity is over 400 m2/s2.

A tornado watch will be issued shortly. In those areas mentioned especially, a few violent tornadoes are possible.

Later this evening and tonight, the activity will congeal into a squall line and move eastward through the Deep South. Places such as Nashville, Huntsville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Montgomery, and Meridian could see some damaging winds along that line of storms as well as some brief tornadoes embedded within the line.

Here is a frame from the RPM model valid at 2:30am CST.

February 25th, 2011 Forecast

A soggy and windswept system is on the way, bringing the potential for a good bit of rain in the next 24 hours but also the potential for some thunder with a cold front passage tomorrow afternoon and evening.   Temperatures will be on a brief rise, potentially reaching 60 in some spots, before the cold front accompanying this storm slices that back to late February reality tomorrow night.

Tonight:   Rain spreads in from the west, light to start but becoming steadier and heavier after midnight.   Low temperatures for the night will probably occur before midnight, with temperatures holding steady north of the city while from the city on south temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 40's as a warm front lifts northward.   It will be breezy south of the warm front as well, with southerly winds at 12-18 mph.

Friday:   Rain, heavy at times for some, continues through mid morning before tapering off from south to north.  It will become windy, with some sun possible for a spell in the afternoon in advance of a cold front that will slide through towards dinner.   Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are possible.   Highs will range from the mid 50's north to 60 (or above) south of the city.   Winds will increase from the south and southwest at 20-30 mph, shifting to the west towards dinner.   Gusts to 60 mph are possible with the frontal passage and any thundershowers that accompany the front.

Weekend Sneak Peek:   A weekend that will feature the typical spring-like roller coaster of temperatures, with a dip down on Saturday in the wake of tomorrow's storm.  Saturday will feature sunshine and lower and middle 40's while clouds will move back in Saturday night with a weak disturbance that tracks to our north.  This disturbance could bring some rain or snow showers to areas north of Philadelphia as it moves through.   Sunday will feature variably cloudy skies and moderating temperatures, perhaps reaching the 50's south of the city in the afternoon if there's enough sunshine.   Another storm lurks for Monday with more rain and warmth.

Next system gearing up...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I focus on the next two systems that will impact a lot of real estate in coming days. A significant severe weather outbreak is likely in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley today and tonight. Give it a look....

Soggy Friday Forthcoming

Just a couple short days after snow fell across the region a strong storm system will work through the region, bringing warmth and a good deal of rain that could result in some stream and roadway flooding in parts of the region on Friday. The system will begin innocently enough with light rain and some showers on Thursday evening before the brunt of the system works through Friday morning with a round of moderate and heavy rain across the region.   The heavier rain will be in association with a warm front that will slowly lift northward overnight, passing Philadelphia after midnight and probably getting as far north as Blue Mountain before low pressure rides east-northeast through the state of Pennsylvania.

Rain will be heaviest until mid morning before it cuts off to just showers, perhaps nothing more than sprinkles across Delaware and South Jersey.   Some computer guidance is suggesting some breaks in the clouds the farther south one goes on Friday, which could result in a marked temperature spread from north to south across the region.

The NAM, left, shows the potential for the warm sector across Pennsylvania, with 50's in light green generally from New York City on south and west through Allentown through Harrisburg and points south during the midday hours.   If we get more than a few looks of sunshine during the afternoon, some 60's would be possible...perhaps even to Philadelphia.   This will be ahead of the low (which you can see as the "target" of those black circled lines in Central Pennsylvania.  As this low lifts northeast, the cold front to its west could perhaps spark a line of showers or thundershowers across South Central Pennsylvania into Maryland, which will slide east with the front.   This isn't a certainty but something to watch with the front.

There are two stories to deal with on Friday.   One is wind.  As the warm front lifts north, southwest winds could increase to 20-30 mph in the mid morning through afternoon, shifting to the west with the passing of the low and cold front and increasing in gusts to 40-45 mph for Friday night and early Saturday.   Friday night's wind will lead to a chilling of the temperature for the weekend -- with temperatures returning to seasonable "norms" for Saturday.

The other story for the event is rain -- some areas could see 2" of rain from this event.   The specifics on who gets what still remain to be seen but it looks like it will be dependent on warm front placement overnight.  Most guidance centers the heaviest rain from Southeast Pennsylvania on northeast through New Jersey.  Whether that is a bit more north of Philadelphia (GFS) or around the city and across Central Jersey (NAM) remains to be seen - but the heaviest of rains should occur after 2 AM on Friday and last until 9-10 AM in the city.   Some minor stream flooding is possible but the bigger threat will be with ponding of roadways and potholes around town, leading to a "fun" Friday morning commute around town.

February 24th, 2011 Forecast

Sunshine and fair weather have helped melt a chunk of that snow around town today.   What little snow that's left will be gone by Friday as milder air continues to nudge northward and a storm system brings rain to the region starting tomorrow night.   We'll highlight the potential for some heavier rains with this upcoming system in a post later on this evening -- it's possible we see some flooding from the storm in some parts of the region. Until then, however, a cool night and a transitional day tomorrow with early sun giving way to clouds in the afternoon.

Tonight:  For the most part, clear overnight but some high clouds will move in towards daybreak.  Expect low temperatures in the teens north of the city, around 20 in the Pine Barrens, and in the upper 20's in Center City.

Thursday:   Early sunshine gives way to increasing cloud cover.   Showers will start moving in with the first fingers of the upcoming storm system, perhaps reaching Central Pennsylvania or the western suburbs towards sunset.   Highs during the day will range from 43 north to 48 south.   Expect light rain overnight.

Later:   More information on the Friday storm.

Quiet, cool Wednesday...two formidable systems on the way

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. A couple of dynamic, Spring-like systems on the way over the next 6 days. Give it a look....



A quiet and cool Wednesday is unfolding around the region with highs in the low to mid 50s and a partly cloudy sky.

A couple of Spring-like storm systems will roll through the eastern US over the next 5 or 6 days. The first will likely produce a significant severe weather outbreak in the Lower MS Valley tomorrow and tomorrow night. A few strong tornadoes are possible there. Also, flooding is a concern for parts of the OH Valley especially.

We will likely see some showers roll into the Carolinas later tomorrow, especially from roughly I-40 northward. But the core of the system moves through Friday morning. Showers and a few storms are possible then....maybe a strong storm or two as well.

The next system moves in around Monday or Monday night. That one actually looks stronger than the first one, so we will watch it closely.

No More Long Rangers In AccuWeather's Forecast

I couldn't think of a better headline to describe the end of Joe Bastardi's 32 year run at AccuWeather than to reference the "Long Ranger" videos he would do for the AccuWeather pro subscribers.   Now with Henry Margusity taking over some of those long range forecast videos, will Accu's pay-for-service continue to draw the snow starved, snow gorged, and those in between?

Reaction to Bastardi's exit is passionate, with a number of folks promising to cancel their subscriptions to AccuWeather's premium service.

Bastardi cashed out of AccuWeather on Monday, his call to leave and not AccuWeather's, with his future unknown at this point.  His twitter feed has no mention of his departure from AccuWeather and has spent the better part of the last 24 hours talking about hurricane season, his snowfall forecast for Monday night for the Mid Atlantic, and the upcoming spring severe weather season.

Speculation as to why Bastardi left ranges from workload and economic reasons (Bastardi can make more money on his own or working for an energy company) to perhaps Bastardi looking for bigger and better things.    Some have suggested a potential TV deal (Fox News) and others have suggested Bastardi may go completely on his own and be an independent forecaster.   One thing it is not due to, however, is his stance on climate change.

One place we probably won't see Bastardi at is the National Weather Service, an organization he has been highly critical of over the years.

Love him, loathe him, or amused by him -- Bastardi has his share of followers and detractors.   I'm neutral on Bastardi's forecasting skills myself -- he, like any other forecaster, has his share of hits and misses.  He is incredibly passionate about the science and that's something that is refreshing to see for someone who has been in the biz for 32 years.   That's what makes Bastardi an interesting character -- he's extremely passionate about the weather and can explain it in a way that's easy enough to understand...regardless of whether he ends up right or wrong.   I'm pretty certain Bastardi will be heard from again, probably sooner rather than later.

A Cool Battle Ahead

In the wake of last night's fluffy snow and the upcoming couple of days of cold that await, the transition to a more zonal pattern will take hold by this weekend if computer guidance is correct. This means we'll see some interesting battles between spring-like warmth in the Southeast and some winter chill in the northern tier of the country, which puts us in the firing line and "stuck in the middle" between the two camps. An active pattern seems to be shaping up for the next week to ten days, which means we'll have a few shots of precipitation before the end of next week and perhaps some frozen precipitation to deal with on at least one of those events.

Typically, true zonal patterns result in fairer weather across the country and milder temperatures in the East.  However, this isn't a pure "zonal" look in the sense of having mild weather and limited moisture.  With a stronger polar low over Central Canada, cold air will lurk nearby and occasionally seep farther south.   The Pacific will be a bit more active and provide additional moisture and storminess to the mix, with the Gulf open for business as the Southeast ridge will be shunted eastward into the Western Atlantic.   This pretty much means a family of storm systems -- some stronger than others -- will take a general track from Missouri to Ohio to New England over the next ten days.   The first of these will hit us on Friday, a stronger system that should pull warmth northward and bring a lot of rain to the region.  We could have some stream rises/localized flooding from this first storm as the snow that fell last night will be all gone by Friday but we're also looking at a potential for an inch to two inches of rain from this event.   Today's GFS run is a bit of a burp from past runs in that it suppresses the track of the storm to our south -- generally from Arkansas to Southern Virginia to the Delmarva -- and brings snow from Philly on north and rain south of the city...the Euro is farther north and milder.

Keep in mind that about this same timeframe out from this past storm the GFS was putting 60's into the Philadelphia region on Monday...didn't work out too well, did it?   It doesn't mean the GFS is wrong...but it is an its own and colder of the guidance.  The NAM, which is now seeing the storm, is a milder model.   We'll keep an eye on the other guidance and how this system evolves in the coming day in the US West.   Stay tuned...but with a skeptical eye.

Two, perhaps three more storm systems will follow after Friday's first event.   Storm #2 of this parade will be weaker and will track quickly in, impacting Saturday night into Sunday.   With cooler air lurking around from the wake of storm one, we could see some frozen precipitation with the second system, especially north of Philadelphia, before temperatures warm and precipitation possibly transitions to rain (GFS suggests a transition, Euro does not with system #2 as Euro keeps this system far weaker).    After that, another system lurks for midweek next week...this one looks a bit stronger and with that general track in place looks like rain at this point.

February 23rd, 2011 Forecast

Tonight: Starry skies and bitter cold. Lows will range between 13 and 20 degrees across the region. North-northwest winds 3 to 8 mph. The sunset tonight is at 5:45 PM.

Wednesday: Sunny skies, cold again. High near 38 degrees in the city. Light winds continue, 3 to 8 mph out of the northwest.

Thursday: Sun to clouds, milder. High near 46 degrees. Rain moves in at night (70 percent chance).

Friday: Rain on and off with isolated thunder. Warmer with a high near 55 degrees. The chance of rain is about 70 percent.

Wednesday Planner

7 AM 20 degrees, Cold

Noon 32 degrees, Sunny

3 PM High near 38 degrees

5 PM 37 degrees, Light Winds

Sunrise 6:43 AM

Sunset 5:46 PM