Slight Risk of Severe Storms Later Today

A trough is moving into Pennsylvania this morning with little fanfare and little thunderstorm activity.   However, as that boundary works east into a more favorable atmosphere the potential for thunderstorm development towards midday and into the early afternoon does exist.   As instability will be quite high thanks to a decent amount of heat and humidity (especially in Pennsylvania) and dynamics aloft are somewhat favorable we are under a slight risk for severe weather for the region for today.    The strongest of storms will produce damaging wind as an upper level jet streak works east in tandem with the trough.   As thunderstorms develop, some of them will tap into the stronger winds aloft and pull some damaging wind gusts to the surface.

At minimum, storm development will be scattered in nature but it's completely possible that a line of thunderstorms develops later on today and slides southeast.

Higher resolution modeling suggests that thunderstorms will impact the Philly area between 2-4 PM, developing perhaps as soon as late morning or midday across Central Pennsylvania before sliding southeast.  

This may not be a widespread severe event, however.   One, last night's seabreeze front has helped push in some marine layer stratus along coastal sections of New Jersey.   Depending on how long it takes for that marine layer to lift this morning, it is possible that thunderstorms along coastal sections of the Garden State may not be as robust as they were in Pennsylvania due to a more stable atmosphere along the coast.   Pennsylvania seems to be more "under the gun" for stronger/severe storms than those east of, say, the New Jersey Turnpike based on this.   If thunderstorm development occurs a little bit later on in the afternoon -- closer to dinner and not lunch -- the extra couple of hours of daytime heating may be enough to overcome the stable atmosphere along the coast this morning.

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