Potential For Strong Storms Tomorrow

With a frontal boundary working east tomorrow into our region, warmth and humidity will provide the spark necessary for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. Questions linger regarding how much rain is possible but there is some potential for heavy rain around the region as these storms develop tomorrow and march east.

Modeling is indecisive about the exact location of heavy rainfall -- the NAM (see below) places the heaviest and strongest thunderstorm activity to our north while the GFS places it to our south. The Euro doesn't give any one spot overly heavy rainfall but plants a general swath of half inch rains from tomorrow's thunderstorms. Predicting exactly where summertime thunder drops heavy rain is a low confidence prediction more often than not but noting that more computer models than not are showing the threat for heavy rainfall tomorrow afternoon and evening is worth bringing up.   Some spots could see an inch plus of rain -- if it is Philly or south, the rain will be quite welcome as things locally have been a bit dry of late.

We could see thunderstorms locally as early as later tonight as a warm front associated with this system lifts northeast up the coast. Thunder could break out this afternoon to our south in Virginia and lift northeast slowly this evening along the coast or across New Jersey.    However, the main burst of activity should be later tomorrow with the front crossing the region.

Some of tomorrow's storms could potentially go severe, especially north/west of the city.   Odds don't favor a widespread outbreak of severe as dynamics with the front aren't all that great but with a humid atmosphere and temperatures in the mid and upper 80's the potential does exist for some stronger thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.