Some potential good news for parts of drought-stricken South Texas. A tropical wave has been slowly oozing northwest through the Yucatan and has emerged into the southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico today, with computer modeling from the GFS and EURO both showing that this system has the potential to organize into a tropical system this week before it makes landfall along the Mexican coastline. The Euro is the slightly stronger and farther north of the two computer models compared to the GFS but both are consistent in keeping the storm a tropical storm to the coast.
These early season systems are typically weaker in nature (there are notable exceptions like Audrey back in the 1950's) but there isn't much to suggest that this system becomes anything more than a tropical storm in the next couple of days...if that. Guidance is generally pointing at a landfall a good distance to the south, which will send most of the heavy rainfall into Mexico. However, the Euro suggests an inch of rain is possible for Brownsville and Padre Island, with potentially some rainfall as far north as Corpus Christi. Granted, it's not getting to the areas that need it just as bad but considering the state of the drought in Texas any rain in any location is helpful at this point for those folks down there.
I would not be surprised if we have a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow evening, with perhaps a tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon or evening in time for landfall Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Intensification to a hurricane out of this system seems very unlikely at this point.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar