Arlene Heads Towards Mexico

The season's first tropical system is churning towards the Mexican coastline and is setting itself up as a prolific rain maker for Eastern Mexico.   Arlene is a 50 mph tropical storm as of this early evening and is slowly organizing as it moves west.  It will probably make landfall on Thursday morning near Tampico, perhaps as a strong tropical storm in best case.   Some of the hurricane guidance out there is suggesting a potential minimal hurricane but there is not much difference between 65 or 75 mph in wind in a minimal area near the storm's center.

The big issue regardless of intensity will be the rainfall over a large portion of Eastern and Northeastern Mexico over the next 48-72 hours.   The Euro computer model, see below, is suggesting more than a foot of rain for parts of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico through Saturday and the GFS is in similar agreement about precipitation potential for areas south of the border   The storm will weaken markedly in wind strength quickly after landfall but will rain itself out over the higher terrain of Mexico, meaning mudslides and flooding are likely.   Deep South Texas might be lucky to get an inch or two of rain from this, all of it sorely needed as they are in a major drought.  

More:  National Hurricane Center