Forecast for Friday, June 24, 2011

As of 3:00 p.m., a few thunderstorms were developing across Monmouth and Ocean Counties into New York and Long Island & Atlantic. An area of showers around Baltimore and Delaware was moving into the southern and western sections of our region. As this area of showers moves into the area into this evening, some thunderstorms may evolve with heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and possible severe weather. We remain under a slight risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. Overall…better forcing is on tap for Friday to produce more organized lift. Some cloud debris from the showers and thunderstorms that impacted the Poconos, Northern New Jersey, and New York could have been effective in reducing the coverage of pop-up thunderstorms. We will maintain a chance of thunderstorms and a chance that any storm could turn severe given the potential energy, moisture, and shear in place.

Otherwise: Another active day is expected on Friday. Friday could be quite busy with numerous strong to severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow we will have a true forcing mechanism in the form of a cold front. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado are possible in any thunderstorm that turns severe. Tomorrow’s storms will rely on temperatures to excel for a few hours with some breaks through the clouds. Should some unforeseen circumstance reduce the sunshine, then we may have to evaluate the threat. Overall, I think even without much sunshine, some wet microbursts and hail may occur with the moisture in place. Dew points are about as high as we can achieve this time of the year with readings in the seventies. We are under a slight risk designation for severe thunderstorms for Friday in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook.

For Saturday, lingering energy could trigger a few isolated thunderstorms. High pressure and drier air move in Saturday Night and provide some relief for Sunday and Monday. Questions evolve around Tuesday and beyond with more warm frontal and cold frontal fights in store. For now, we will insert thunderstorm and shower chances by mid-week.